After the oil price is lowered

Just after the "October" Golden Week, Beijing's Xiao Song, who had just bought a car with a trombone, welcomed the good news of gasoline price cuts. Since midnight on October 9, the supply prices of gasoline and diesel have been respectively 8280 yuan and 7,430 yuan per ton, and the average price of gasoline and diesel has dropped by 300 yuan per ton respectively. The longest price adjustment since the implementation of the new refined oil pricing mechanism took place.

Sinopec data showed that starting from the early morning of October 9, the retail price of gasoline in Beijing 93 began to implement 7.61 yuan / liter, down 0.24 yuan from the previous 7.85 yuan; retail price of gasoline 97 yuan / liter, compared to the previous 8.36 yuan Per drop of 0.26 yuan.

On the 11th, the reporter saw at Sinopec Gas Station, Chengshou Temple Road, Fengtai District, Beijing. The electronic screen clearly marked the new price after the price adjustment. A number of vehicles immediately entered the refueling system and immediately followed the price cut.

In fact, the price of oil has been lowered for a long time. International crude oil prices have fluctuated in the past few months. New York's light crude oil recently fell below the 80 US dollar mark. Earlier agencies had predicted that the domestic product oil cut time window would open in late August, but continued to delay.

This is the third time this year the oil price adjustment, is also the first time to cut oil prices. The price of oil was raised twice on April 7 and February this year. The last time the oil price was lowered was June 1, 2010.

Price cuts: Relieve price pressures

How do the price cuts affect China's macro economy? The degree of geometry? Experts have different opinions.

The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission recently explained the hot issues of refined oil and pointed out that the price of domestic refined oil was lowered this time.

It will help reduce social operating costs, ease pressure on rising prices, and promote stable and rapid development of the national economy.

Dong Xiucheng, vice president of the School of Business Administration of China University of Petroleum, said that lowering the average price would have a positive and positive impact on the Chinese economy. The industry correlation of gasoline and diesel prices is very high, and the weight in the CPI is very high. Lowering the prices of gasoline and diesel will reduce the production costs of many industries, ease the operating pressure, benefit the overall economy, and benefit the economic development.

Han Xiaoping, chief information officer of China Energy Network, also believes that lowering the price of refined oil itself is a good signal. Han Xiaoping believes that the refined oil price mechanism has always been a tool for the government's macro-control, and it does not fully reflect the market demand. High oil prices will have a negative impact on China's economy. This time, the cut in refined oil prices will play a role in curbing inflation. .

At the same time, some scholars also said that the adjustment of refined oil prices was relatively small, and the role of relieving inflation was limited. Gao Shixian, assistant director of the National Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the reduction of refined oil prices will have a certain impact on the high price level, but its role is limited.

Shen Huiwan's chief macroeconomic analyst Li Huiyong also believes that the direct impact of the oil price cut on inflation is very small. If the refined oil price is lowered by 10%, it will only fall by 0.1% correspondingly in the CPI data. Therefore, the refined oil price is lowered. The impact on CPI is not great.

The commodity trading information website Zhuo Chuang Information Release Bulletin stated that if the refined oil prices are lowered as scheduled, the domestic refined oil market will lower the price of the market. Since the northeast refinery starts to produce negative diesel, the production of 0# diesel will inevitably decrease. CNPC's overall diesel resources are still not optimistic; at the same time, diesel is currently in peak demand season, and diesel demand is expected to be good. Some stations may also be limited in diesel shipments. By then, the probability of domestic “diesel shortage” will increase.

Pricing: Or will refer to New York oil prices

The price of oil has gone through ups and downs, and the voice of the forthcoming reform plan for refined oil pricing mechanism is also growing. Some people think that in the future, domestic refined oil pricing may be added to New York oil prices and other reference factors.

Some media quoted insiders from the two major oil groups and pointed out that the framework of the new refined oil pricing mechanism has almost been completed, and only the consensus of all parties reached a consensus. The adjustment of the affiliated oil type is likely to join the reference index of New York oil prices. .

The current mechanism for determining the price of refined oil products mainly refers to the prices of crude oil in the international markets Brent, Dubai and Xinta, and does not include the price of New York, one of the two major benchmark oil prices in the world, namely the international market Brent. When the average price of crude oil in Dubai and Xinta changed for more than 4% for 22 working days in a row, the refined product price could be adjusted accordingly.

Shi Dan, deputy director of the Institute of Finance and Trade of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that because oil prices are a barometer of the changes in the global economic situation, it is not unreasonable to include the more popular New York crude oil prices in the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism. The prices of international oil products have been financialized. The introduction of New York oil prices actually takes into account financial factors.

Some experts in the industry also believe that compared with Brent oil prices, WTI oil prices (ie, New York oil prices) have generally declined in recent years, and are more in line with the state's control of prices.

CIC Securities believes that the monthly average price of Brent, which is an important reference price for price adjustment, has also been reduced from 120 to 109 US dollars. However, due to the 22-day moving average, the short-term pulse rise of Brent oil prices is very easy to wipe. The average price rises and falls, it can be said that this time the oil price has gone through a lot of twists and turns, which will accelerate the pace of reform of the refined oil system.

Forward-looking: Continue to improve the pricing mechanism

The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission also admitted that the operation of the price mechanism revealed problems such as the excessively long price adjustment cycle and insufficient transparency of the mechanism.

The person in charge said that due to the imperfect system of the domestic refined oil market, the government still needs to supervise the refined oil prices. In order to continuously promote the marketization process of refined oil price reform, ensure market supply, and stabilize market order, the country will, within the framework of the current institutional mechanism, focus on shortening the price adjustment cycle and accelerating the frequency of price adjustments to improve the operating mode of oil product price adjustment and adjust the oil products to be linked. In terms of other aspects, it further improved the refined oil price mechanism.

The person in charge pointed out at the same time that the current reform thinking is in the process of research and demonstration, and after the opinions of various parties have basically reached a consensus, it will be launched at the right time.

Many people are not sympathetic to lowering oil prices, and discussions on the current pricing mechanism for refined oil products are relatively concentrated. Some viewpoints hold that the current pricing mechanism for refined oil products should be changed, the pricing power should be delegated to oil companies, and the promotion of marketization of oil prices can only resolve people's dissatisfaction.

In response, Pan Weier, deputy director of the Public Economics and Technology Committee, believes that the top priority for the marketization of China’s oil industry should be to break the monopoly of state-owned assets in oil exploration and development, reform the allocation of oil resources, and cultivate the scale of state-owned oil companies as soon as possible. Quite a private oil company. Only in this way can China's oil companies truly move into the international market. Can nationals gain tangible benefits in the market competition of oil companies and help the country fight inflation, benefit people's livelihood, and promote harmony.

Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center at Xiamen University, said that he hopes the government will seize the opportunity to improve the price mechanism when the price of oil is relatively modest. This makes the refined oil price mechanism closer to the market, adapting to the current significant fluctuations in international oil prices, and improving the design of consumer subsidies, making our refined oil subsidies more fair and effective.