[China Aluminum Network] 1. China's Macroeconomic Operation: The downward pressure on the Chinese economy has increased, the growth rate of investment in fixed assets has continued to fall, the growth rate of infrastructure has dropped, and the risk in the real estate market has increased. The manufacturing PMI index for August showed a slowdown in China's manufacturing recovery. The growth rate of industrial added value fell sharply in August.
2. China's macroeconomic policy orientation: On March 19, the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that it is necessary to stabilize the economic operation within a reasonable range. On June 16th, the central bank again targeted downwards. On June 30, the China Banking Regulatory Commission adjusted the statistical criteria for the loan-to-deposit ratio. 42 cities issued a document to relax the purchase. The central bank refinanced the country with a refinance of 1 trillion yuan through PSL. The government began to vigorously rescue the market.
3. Main reasons and constraints for the operation of aluminum and zinc: The rebound of aluminum and zinc prices in the previous period was mainly caused by supply constraints, and China's steady growth policy and the potential for late-stage policy may be overweight. The aluminum price rebounded earlier in the period, which was mainly due to the larger decline in the past two years. Inventory adjustment behavior should be the direct reason for the rapid rebound in spot prices. The core factor constraining the rebound of aluminum and zinc prices is the overcapacity. Once the price is high enough, the supply will increase substantially, thus suppressing the price performance.
5, aluminum spot price: October 8, Shanghai aluminum narrow finishing month and 14,000 yuan / ton in the vicinity, 5 and 10 day moving average showed significant resistance. Spot transactions in Shanghai are concentrated at yuan/ton, and discounted to RMB 20/ton from the current month to flat water. The spot transaction price in Wuxi area was concentrated in yuan / ton, and the spot price in Hangzhou area was concentrated in yuan / ton. After the holidays, the total volume of warehouses in Shanghai, Wuxi, and Nanhai increased. The total increase in SMM statistics was 44,000 tons. However, the total consumption of downstream retailers did not recover completely on the first day after the holiday. The willingness to purchase was insufficient, resulting in a general market turnover.
6, spot price of zinc: October 8th, 0 # zinc mainstream transactions yuan / ton, 0 # current zinc on the Shanghai zinc main 1412 contract rose 200-230 yuan / ton, 1 # transaction yuan / Ton. Shanghai zinc was strong and weak, with the main month 1412 contract opening higher and lower, and sideways finishing at around 16,800 yuan/ton, and the spot immediately followed the futures premium to maintain at around 200-230 yuan/ton. Zinc prices continued to rise to around 17,000 yuan/ton, and individual smelters were more active in enthusiasm and stocks were slightly more plentiful; however, futures rose sharply, traders' arbitrage space narrowed, and the market was very willing to increase prices; the spot premium was strong; after the holiday, The downstream sentiment was slightly cautious, coupled with the increase in zinc prices, and the high enthusiasm for watching and taking goods was limited. Overall transactions did not improve significantly compared to the previous trading day before the holiday.
summary
Some cities in China have stepped up efforts to save the market. The first down payment for Ningbo's first suite can be reduced to 20%, and housing subsidies can be issued. The effect of bailout remains to be further observed. From the data released recently, China's economic downward pressure remains large. If the downward trend of the economy cannot be reversed, then the possibility that the Chinese central bank will lower its interest rate cut will increase. The growth rate of the aluminum-zinc supply end is still not high, and it has not brought greater pressure on the prices of aluminum and zinc. In the short term, the maintenance of a wide range of aluminum and zinc prices is still a high-probability event. In terms of tactics, the previously proposed empty orders can be considered rolling operations, dips to lighten up, rallies to make up, do not sell, do not chase.
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