Last week, the average price of cement in major cities across the country rose by 0.55%. In the East China region, the price of cement in Anhui was raised by RMB 10-20/ton, which was mainly due to compensatory growth. In the southwestern region, Nanning, Guangxi, was restricted due to electricity restrictions in the region, cement prices were raised again by RMB 30-40/ton, and the price of low-grade bagged cement in Chengdu, Sichuan Province was pulled back. 10 yuan / ton; southeastern region, Hainan Haikou cement prices continue to rise pattern, the rate of 10 yuan / ton, limited power and Guangxi led the main cause. The price of the Pearl River Delta has been raised as scheduled, at a rate of RMB 15-20 per ton, due to the Asian Games held in November. It is expected that the price will stabilize in the later period. It was noted that Hebei, Anhui, and Shandong will implement power restriction measures, and it is expected that the prices of these products will increase in the later period.
From January to August, China's cement output increased by 16.7% year-on-year. On the demand side, the growth rate of solid investment was 24.8%. Although it continued to fall, the rate of decline slowed down, and the growth rate of housing investment was 36.7%. Overall, it remained stable at a high level. On the supply side, it is expected that the industry's fixed-income investment growth will be around 14%, and the industry's future supply growth rate will remain low. Considering that the cost lags behind for two months to reflect the company’s coal inventories digestion time, the gross profit per ton of the cement industry in January-March was unchanged from the same period of 2009, and the gross profit of the industry in April-June was higher than that in March, but lower than the same period in 2009, July. The industry's ton of gross profit dropped; the August tracking system showed that the gross profit per ton remained stable; the southern region of China entered the most prosperous season of the year in September, and the provinces' subsidy policies for high energy-consuming industries were reduced on the supply side of the product, one increase and one decrease, and the south The prices of cement in each region of the region will increase in rotation in the next 1-2 months. At the cost end, the coal price has decreased in the chain for consecutive weeks, and it is expected that the industry's gross profit per tonne will rise significantly in September.
Investment suggestion: In the fourth quarter, investment opportunities are in southern cement. Under the background of the country's macroeconomic and real estate industry's regulation and further reduction in the probability of tight expectations, Tianshan Group and Anhui Conch's investment products and cyclical product valuations are protected; In terms of fundamentals, energy costs are reduced month-on-month. During the peak season in Southern China Cement, provinces have successively implemented product supply-side subtraction for power-constrained policies, and cement activity in the southern region is relatively strong. It is expected that cement prices will continue to increase in rotation in the next 1-2 months. Related companies The monthly profitability improved rapidly; in September, the Bureau of Statistics announced the energy consumption per unit of GDP in the first half of the year. Seven provinces and cities were named. It is expected that the deadline measures will be further promoted nationwide.