——2008 China Industrial Development Report
The past year of 2008 is a year in which China left a special mark and it is a very extraordinary year for China. This year is China's 30 years of reform and opening up. The world has never seen China's breadth and depth. China has shaken the world with its courage and wisdom.
Eight conclusions of China's industry in 2008
In particular, China’s 30 years of reform and opening up are 30 years of great change, 30 years of changing China, and 30 years of shocking the world.
Therefore, when we take stock of the hot news and focus of China's industrial economy in 2008, we naturally associate with the brilliant achievements in the industrial field in the 30 years of reform and opening up. At least for China's industry in 2008, we can clearly get such conclusive views:
(1) The mystery of China's miracle is prominently manifested in the ability to concentrate on doing big things. Whether it is the sudden rain and snow in the south, it is the national rescue of the "5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake", and the love is boundless; whether it is the unparalleled Beijing Olympics or the space walk of Shenzhou VII, it shows that China can concentrate resources. In response to sudden disasters, we can lift the style of a big country that handles major events lightly.
(2) China has changed from a big agricultural economy to a veritable industrial economic power. China's economic growth has shown a strong trend of industrialization. China's major industrial output has ranked first in the world, and China has become the world's third largest economy. The United Nations "World Economic Situation and Prospects 2009" report said that China's contribution to global economic growth in 2008 has risen to 22%.
(3) Chinese industry is integrating into the global economic system. China is becoming a "world factory". The socialist market economy has begun to be in line with international practices, and a new pattern of all-round opening has begun to take shape. With the swarming of foreign-funded enterprises, Chinese industry is more market-oriented, both in terms of system and mechanism.
(4) The enterprise ownership structure of China's industrial economy has undergone profound changes, and a new pattern of common competitive development of various economic components has begun to take shape. Private industrial enterprises have become the largest growth sector of China's economy; local state-owned industrial enterprises have “captured big and small†and realized diversification of property rights; central industrial enterprises continue to play a state-owned role in important industries that are related to the lifeline of the national economy and important areas related to national security. Economic control, drive and influence.
(5) China's local industry is full of vitality. In the 30 years of China's reform and opening up, it has formed "SZC, Zhuhai, Shantou, Xiamen and other special economic zones - coastal open cities - the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Southeast Yunnan and the Bohai Sea and other coastal economic development zones - the mainland" Such a multi-level, focused, point-to-face combination of local reform and opening up has also contributed to the development of the western region, the revitalization of the old industrial bases in the Northeast, and the regional industrial development pattern of the rise of the central region.
(6) The market in China is large enough. In the 30 years of reform and opening up, China has activated the stock market, the property market and the automobile market. With the continuous upgrading of consumption, China has formed a large domestic demand market. In particular, China's vast rural market is a large market with expansion space.
(7) China, as one of the largest developing countries, has obvious late-comer advantages. China's urbanization has not yet been completed, China's industrialization is underway, and China's demographic dividend period has not yet ended. This is an important reason why China has maintained a growth rate of around 10% for a long time.
(8) The reform and opening up of China's industry has entered a new stage. The reform and opening up of China's industry has very obvious stage characteristics: from the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Party in 1978 to 1992, it was the first stage of reform and opening up; from the "Southern Tour" of Deng Xiaoping in 1992 to 2001, The second stage of reform and opening up; from the formal entry of China into the World Trade Organization in 2001 to 2008, it is the third stage of reform and opening up.
In October 2008, the Third Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee was held, marking the fourth stage of China's industrial reform and opening up. The salient features of this stage are: implementing the scientific development concept, adhering to the road of independent innovation with Chinese characteristics, adhering to the new industrialization road with Chinese characteristics, adhering to the principle of expanding domestic demand, especially consumer demand, and persisting in promoting agriculture through industry and townships. Form a new pattern of integration of urban and rural economic and social development.
The eight conclusions of China's industry are concentrated, summarizing the fundamentals of Chinese industry. It is precisely because of this fundamentals that we have every reason to believe that China is most likely to get out of the shadow of the financial crisis ahead of schedule.
The four major speculations of China's industry in 2009
Guess one: Winter is coming, will spring be far behind?
The global financial crisis that began in the United States quickly showed a domino effect. When the three major economies of the United States, Europe, and Japan experienced a simultaneous economic recession, when international crude oil futures prices fell below $40 a barrel by $40 a barrel, people began to form a consensus: this once in a hundred years. The financial turmoil is the largest financial crisis since the Second World War.
What kind of situation should be judged about this financial crisis? It can be summed up in three sentences: First, like the historical tragedy of the Great Depression in the wake of the 1929 crash, the possibility of repeating itself today is minimal. Second, China is most likely to get out of the shadow of the financial crisis ahead of schedule. Third, the coldest time has not passed. This year is the most difficult year for China’s economic development since the beginning of the new century.
Guess 2: 4 trillion yuan investment, igniting the "a fire" in the winter?
In general, the impact of the global financial crisis on Chinese industry can be summarized as “five spreadsâ€, that is, from the international market to the domestic market, from small and medium-sized enterprises to large enterprises, from the eastern coast to the central and western regions, From the end product market to the raw material market, from the virtual economy to the real economy. The trend of the global financial crisis is likely to be U-shaped, that is, the time for consolidation at the bottom is relatively long.
Under such circumstances, the 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus package launched by the state has ignited a "fire" in the winter. In 2009, the relevant departments of the State Council are formulating two major plans: one is to expand ten plans for domestic demand, and the other is to revitalize ten important industries including steel, automobiles, ships, petrochemicals, textiles, light industry, non-ferrous metals, equipment manufacturing, and electronic information. planning. The 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus package has played a vital role in maintaining growth.
Conjecture 3: Expanding domestic demand, industrial products going to the countryside to bloom?
To expand domestic demand, the greatest potential is in rural areas, and the best way is to go to the countryside.
The first to bear the brunt is the agricultural machinery to the countryside. The Party Central Committee and the State Council have decided to increase the subsidies for the purchase of agricultural machinery and equipment on a large scale. The subsidies cover all agricultural and animal husbandry counties (fields) in the country.
Secondly, the home appliances to the countryside opened the breakthrough point of industrial products to the countryside, making it possible to upgrade home appliances to the countryside to industrial products.
Since February 1 this year, the promotion of home appliances to the countryside has been extended to motorcycles, computers, water heaters and air conditioners on the basis of existing subsidized color TVs, refrigerators, washing machines and mobile phones.
The third is the car to the countryside. The newly-recommended automobile revitalization plan clearly stipulates that “from March 1 to December 31, 2009, the state will arrange 5 billion yuan for farmers to scrap three-wheeled vehicles and low-speed trucks for light-duty trucks and purchase displacements below 1.3 liters. Minibuses give a one-time financial subsidy."
Guess 4: A two-pronged approach, issuing 1 trillion yuan of coupons?
According to statistics, from 1979 to 2007, China's GDP grew at an average annual rate of 9.8%, while urban residents' per capita disposable income increased by only 7.2%, and rural residents' per capita net income increased by only 7.1%, both lower than GDP growth. Residents' income as a percentage of gross national income continued to decline, suppressing the willingness of urban and rural residents to consume, and reducing China's consumption rate from 62.3% in 2000 to 48.8% in 2007. One key to expanding domestic demand is to increase residents' income and increase spending power. Therefore, while promoting industrial products to the countryside, we can consider a two-pronged approach to distribute 1 trillion yuan of consumer vouchers to more than 200 million households in rural areas, so that more than 900 million peasants, including migrant workers, not only have consumption aspirations, but also have consumption. ability. As for increasing the income of urban residents, we can consider adopting expert advice to raise the threshold for personal income tax to 5,000 yuan per month.
In 2009, it is likely to be the first year of China's economic development model transformation. The macro-control policy is likely to change from “one guarantee†to “double guaranteeâ€â€”both to maintain growth and to change the economic development model. After the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis in 1997, China recognized that the traditional model of relying on exports and investment to promote economic development was unsustainable. At that time, it proposed a development strategy to expand domestic demand. The outbreak of the global financial crisis, maintaining growth, expanding domestic demand, adjusting structure, and benefiting people's livelihood, has marked the beginning of a crucial period for the transformation of China's economic development model. Obviously, the domestic demand-style strategic transformation is the main theme of China's economic development in the future. For the government, an important content is to improve the social security system for urban residents' pension, medical care, unemployment, relief, etc., and to establish a social security system that covers the whole society and the urban and rural areas, such as the national co-ordination of social security for migrant workers. . For enterprises, transformation is undoubtedly a strategy that not only tests the survival wisdom of enterprises, but also tests the growth wisdom of enterprises.
In general, the situation faced by China's industry in 2009 is severe. It insists on taking the road of new industrialization with Chinese characteristics. First, it is committed to ensuring growth, actively responding to the challenges brought about by the international financial crisis, implementing various central government policies and measures, and expanding domestic demand. Promote steady and rapid growth of industry, ensure that industrial added value will achieve a growth rate of about 12% in 2009; second, focus on restructuring, promote technological transformation and independent innovation, accelerate structural transformation and transformation of development mode, and put technological transformation in industrial development. Highlight the position and promote industrial connotation development; Third, focus on promoting integration, promote the integration of informationization and industrialization, strengthen the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, support the development of key industries, and adjust and optimize the industrial structure.
Because of its huge domestic demand market, the Chinese economy is very easy to move forward. China is the country that is most promising to lead the world out of the economic recession. The transformation of China's economic development model may have just taken the first step in the long march, and the tasks ahead are more arduous, more glorious, and greater. Undoubtedly, after the cold winter of the financial crisis, the global industrial civilization and commercial civilization will develop to a new stage and create a new era.
The past year of 2008 is a year in which China left a special mark and it is a very extraordinary year for China. This year is China's 30 years of reform and opening up. The world has never seen China's breadth and depth. China has shaken the world with its courage and wisdom.
Eight conclusions of China's industry in 2008
In particular, China’s 30 years of reform and opening up are 30 years of great change, 30 years of changing China, and 30 years of shocking the world.
Therefore, when we take stock of the hot news and focus of China's industrial economy in 2008, we naturally associate with the brilliant achievements in the industrial field in the 30 years of reform and opening up. At least for China's industry in 2008, we can clearly get such conclusive views:
(1) The mystery of China's miracle is prominently manifested in the ability to concentrate on doing big things. Whether it is the sudden rain and snow in the south, it is the national rescue of the "5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake", and the love is boundless; whether it is the unparalleled Beijing Olympics or the space walk of Shenzhou VII, it shows that China can concentrate resources. In response to sudden disasters, we can lift the style of a big country that handles major events lightly.
(2) China has changed from a big agricultural economy to a veritable industrial economic power. China's economic growth has shown a strong trend of industrialization. China's major industrial output has ranked first in the world, and China has become the world's third largest economy. The United Nations "World Economic Situation and Prospects 2009" report said that China's contribution to global economic growth in 2008 has risen to 22%.
(3) Chinese industry is integrating into the global economic system. China is becoming a "world factory". The socialist market economy has begun to be in line with international practices, and a new pattern of all-round opening has begun to take shape. With the swarming of foreign-funded enterprises, Chinese industry is more market-oriented, both in terms of system and mechanism.
(4) The enterprise ownership structure of China's industrial economy has undergone profound changes, and a new pattern of common competitive development of various economic components has begun to take shape. Private industrial enterprises have become the largest growth sector of China's economy; local state-owned industrial enterprises have “captured big and small†and realized diversification of property rights; central industrial enterprises continue to play a state-owned role in important industries that are related to the lifeline of the national economy and important areas related to national security. Economic control, drive and influence.
(5) China's local industry is full of vitality. In the 30 years of China's reform and opening up, it has formed "SZC, Zhuhai, Shantou, Xiamen and other special economic zones - coastal open cities - the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Southeast Yunnan and the Bohai Sea and other coastal economic development zones - the mainland" Such a multi-level, focused, point-to-face combination of local reform and opening up has also contributed to the development of the western region, the revitalization of the old industrial bases in the Northeast, and the regional industrial development pattern of the rise of the central region.
(6) The market in China is large enough. In the 30 years of reform and opening up, China has activated the stock market, the property market and the automobile market. With the continuous upgrading of consumption, China has formed a large domestic demand market. In particular, China's vast rural market is a large market with expansion space.
(7) China, as one of the largest developing countries, has obvious late-comer advantages. China's urbanization has not yet been completed, China's industrialization is underway, and China's demographic dividend period has not yet ended. This is an important reason why China has maintained a growth rate of around 10% for a long time.
(8) The reform and opening up of China's industry has entered a new stage. The reform and opening up of China's industry has very obvious stage characteristics: from the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Party in 1978 to 1992, it was the first stage of reform and opening up; from the "Southern Tour" of Deng Xiaoping in 1992 to 2001, The second stage of reform and opening up; from the formal entry of China into the World Trade Organization in 2001 to 2008, it is the third stage of reform and opening up.
In October 2008, the Third Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee was held, marking the fourth stage of China's industrial reform and opening up. The salient features of this stage are: implementing the scientific development concept, adhering to the road of independent innovation with Chinese characteristics, adhering to the new industrialization road with Chinese characteristics, adhering to the principle of expanding domestic demand, especially consumer demand, and persisting in promoting agriculture through industry and townships. Form a new pattern of integration of urban and rural economic and social development.
The eight conclusions of China's industry are concentrated, summarizing the fundamentals of Chinese industry. It is precisely because of this fundamentals that we have every reason to believe that China is most likely to get out of the shadow of the financial crisis ahead of schedule.
The four major speculations of China's industry in 2009
Guess one: Winter is coming, will spring be far behind?
The global financial crisis that began in the United States quickly showed a domino effect. When the three major economies of the United States, Europe, and Japan experienced a simultaneous economic recession, when international crude oil futures prices fell below $40 a barrel by $40 a barrel, people began to form a consensus: this once in a hundred years. The financial turmoil is the largest financial crisis since the Second World War.
What kind of situation should be judged about this financial crisis? It can be summed up in three sentences: First, like the historical tragedy of the Great Depression in the wake of the 1929 crash, the possibility of repeating itself today is minimal. Second, China is most likely to get out of the shadow of the financial crisis ahead of schedule. Third, the coldest time has not passed. This year is the most difficult year for China’s economic development since the beginning of the new century.
Guess 2: 4 trillion yuan investment, igniting the "a fire" in the winter?
In general, the impact of the global financial crisis on Chinese industry can be summarized as “five spreadsâ€, that is, from the international market to the domestic market, from small and medium-sized enterprises to large enterprises, from the eastern coast to the central and western regions, From the end product market to the raw material market, from the virtual economy to the real economy. The trend of the global financial crisis is likely to be U-shaped, that is, the time for consolidation at the bottom is relatively long.
Under such circumstances, the 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus package launched by the state has ignited a "fire" in the winter. In 2009, the relevant departments of the State Council are formulating two major plans: one is to expand ten plans for domestic demand, and the other is to revitalize ten important industries including steel, automobiles, ships, petrochemicals, textiles, light industry, non-ferrous metals, equipment manufacturing, and electronic information. planning. The 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus package has played a vital role in maintaining growth.
Conjecture 3: Expanding domestic demand, industrial products going to the countryside to bloom?
To expand domestic demand, the greatest potential is in rural areas, and the best way is to go to the countryside.
The first to bear the brunt is the agricultural machinery to the countryside. The Party Central Committee and the State Council have decided to increase the subsidies for the purchase of agricultural machinery and equipment on a large scale. The subsidies cover all agricultural and animal husbandry counties (fields) in the country.
Secondly, the home appliances to the countryside opened the breakthrough point of industrial products to the countryside, making it possible to upgrade home appliances to the countryside to industrial products.
Since February 1 this year, the promotion of home appliances to the countryside has been extended to motorcycles, computers, water heaters and air conditioners on the basis of existing subsidized color TVs, refrigerators, washing machines and mobile phones.
The third is the car to the countryside. The newly-recommended automobile revitalization plan clearly stipulates that “from March 1 to December 31, 2009, the state will arrange 5 billion yuan for farmers to scrap three-wheeled vehicles and low-speed trucks for light-duty trucks and purchase displacements below 1.3 liters. Minibuses give a one-time financial subsidy."
Guess 4: A two-pronged approach, issuing 1 trillion yuan of coupons?
According to statistics, from 1979 to 2007, China's GDP grew at an average annual rate of 9.8%, while urban residents' per capita disposable income increased by only 7.2%, and rural residents' per capita net income increased by only 7.1%, both lower than GDP growth. Residents' income as a percentage of gross national income continued to decline, suppressing the willingness of urban and rural residents to consume, and reducing China's consumption rate from 62.3% in 2000 to 48.8% in 2007. One key to expanding domestic demand is to increase residents' income and increase spending power. Therefore, while promoting industrial products to the countryside, we can consider a two-pronged approach to distribute 1 trillion yuan of consumer vouchers to more than 200 million households in rural areas, so that more than 900 million peasants, including migrant workers, not only have consumption aspirations, but also have consumption. ability. As for increasing the income of urban residents, we can consider adopting expert advice to raise the threshold for personal income tax to 5,000 yuan per month.
In 2009, it is likely to be the first year of China's economic development model transformation. The macro-control policy is likely to change from “one guarantee†to “double guaranteeâ€â€”both to maintain growth and to change the economic development model. After the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis in 1997, China recognized that the traditional model of relying on exports and investment to promote economic development was unsustainable. At that time, it proposed a development strategy to expand domestic demand. The outbreak of the global financial crisis, maintaining growth, expanding domestic demand, adjusting structure, and benefiting people's livelihood, has marked the beginning of a crucial period for the transformation of China's economic development model. Obviously, the domestic demand-style strategic transformation is the main theme of China's economic development in the future. For the government, an important content is to improve the social security system for urban residents' pension, medical care, unemployment, relief, etc., and to establish a social security system that covers the whole society and the urban and rural areas, such as the national co-ordination of social security for migrant workers. . For enterprises, transformation is undoubtedly a strategy that not only tests the survival wisdom of enterprises, but also tests the growth wisdom of enterprises.
In general, the situation faced by China's industry in 2009 is severe. It insists on taking the road of new industrialization with Chinese characteristics. First, it is committed to ensuring growth, actively responding to the challenges brought about by the international financial crisis, implementing various central government policies and measures, and expanding domestic demand. Promote steady and rapid growth of industry, ensure that industrial added value will achieve a growth rate of about 12% in 2009; second, focus on restructuring, promote technological transformation and independent innovation, accelerate structural transformation and transformation of development mode, and put technological transformation in industrial development. Highlight the position and promote industrial connotation development; Third, focus on promoting integration, promote the integration of informationization and industrialization, strengthen the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, support the development of key industries, and adjust and optimize the industrial structure.
Because of its huge domestic demand market, the Chinese economy is very easy to move forward. China is the country that is most promising to lead the world out of the economic recession. The transformation of China's economic development model may have just taken the first step in the long march, and the tasks ahead are more arduous, more glorious, and greater. Undoubtedly, after the cold winter of the financial crisis, the global industrial civilization and commercial civilization will develop to a new stage and create a new era.
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