The BP2035 World Energy Outlook predicts that China's natural gas production will maintain an average annual growth rate of 5.1% in the next 20 years. Among them, shale gas is an important driving factor for growth and will maintain an average annual growth rate of 33% from 2025 to 2035. “China will become the second largest shale gas production area in the world after North America,†said Dai Sipan, chief economist of BP Group.
According to the report, North America will account for three-quarters of the world's shale gas supply by 2035. However, shale gas production outside North America will accelerate, and China is the most promising country outside North America.
Dai Sipan said that this is mainly based on China's abundant shale gas resources, the Chinese government's supportive policies for the development of shale gas and the current achievements in China's shale gas exploration and development. “The future development of shale gas in China will be better, depending on whether more social capital can be introduced to form a more competitive market.†He believes.
According to the report, the global tight oil recoverable resources are 340 billion barrels, and the shale gas exploitable resources are 7500 trillion cubic feet. Asia has the most abundant resources, followed by North America.
“Although the production of tight oil and shale gas outside North America will increase, production will remain concentrated in North America.†Dai Sipan believes that it is difficult for other regions to quickly replicate the factors driving the surge in North American production.
He said that North America not only has abundant shale gas resources, but also is relatively easy to mine and has abundant water sources. From the perspective of mechanism factors, the large-scale growth of shale gas in North America comes from the innovation and productivity improvement brought by the strong competition of many small and medium-sized energy companies. In addition, the shale gas production area in North America has a low population density, and the supporting facilities such as natural gas pipelines are very mature.
The report predicts that China will surpass the United States as the world's largest oil consumer by 2030. By 2035, China's dependence on oil imports will rise from less than 60% to 75%, and natural gas import dependence will rise from less than 30% to more than 40%. By then, China will become the world's largest energy importer, and its energy import dependence will rise from 15% to 23%.
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