Construction Securities (12.9): Copper and Aluminum

The "Risk Warning" section of the magazine aims to describe the risk of long and short positions through the icon of the star flag. It is used as a reference for investors when dealing with open positions. In actual operation, investors need to trade according to their own short-term midlines. Different strategies and different varieties of fluctuations in the characteristics of a specific grasp. The specific star classification criteria are as follows: ☆ The reverse run range of new-year closing price may be less than 2%. ☆ ☆ The reverse run range of new-term closing price may be greater than 2%. ☆☆ ☆ The price range is reversed from the newer closing. The rate may be greater than 3%. ☆☆☆☆ The reverse run of the period from the newer closing may be greater than 4%. ☆☆☆☆☆ The reverse running range from the newer closing price may be greater than 5%. Risk Warning: Bulls: ☆ Short Risks: ☆ Tips before the market: Orient: Copper: The US dollar rebounded sharply and the fund's long liquidation was suppressed. Yesterday, LME copper fell sharply in March, closing at a recent low, closing at USD 2,872/tonne. The price fell by 80 US dollars/ton in one trading day, and the fluctuation ranged from 2965 to 2,851 yuan/ton. Driven by the early fall in crude oil prices, the US dollar rebounded sharply in the foreign exchange market yesterday. After undergoing a huge sell-off in recent days, the dollar finally saw a long-awaited adjustment rally. Affected by this factor, the price of copper fell sharply. Yesterday LME. Copper inventories fell by 375 tons, but under the strong rebound of the US dollar, the decline in inventory failed to provide the slightest support for copper prices, but copper prices gained support at the important support level of 2850 dollars. Yesterday, the domestic Shanghai copper fell sharply under the drive of the recent months contract. The spot month with strong early trend and the January contract showed a mixed fall trend. The January contract was once hit to the limit. Operation should still maintain short-term thinking. The domestic spot price fell sharply yesterday to 30,350 to 30,550 yuan per ton. Aluminium: LME March aluminum was affected by the sharp decline in copper prices yesterday, there has been a downward trend, but by China will be in 2005 to cancel the aluminum export tax rebate preferential factors bullish support, the decline is relatively small, the closing is still closed above 1,800 US dollars yesterday LME Aluminium stocks have increased significantly by 12,900 tons. Yesterday, the domestic Shanghai Aluminium showed a trend of upward fluctuations, mainly after the aluminum export tax rebate was clear, it turned into a bearish situation, but due to the impact of the drop in international aluminum prices, it is expected that the recent sharp rise may not be significant. Yesterday, the domestic spot price changed little, reported 15720 ~ 15750 yuan / ton. Overseas Express: LME Market Report: London December 8 news: The London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals generally fell on Wednesday. Although the copper out of a month low, but still under pressure, before the dollar rebound triggered speculative selling. The major currencies have rebounded, and investors have profited from the gains of other major currencies. There are signs that the strength of the local currency may prompt some countries to slow down the pace of monetary policy tightening. Affected by the profit-taking of the fund, London Copper fell for two consecutive trading days. Copper prices hit a low of $2,858.50 per metric ton at the beginning of the session. As of midday, copper prices were always below $2,900 per metric ton. Affected by further selling pressure, copper prices tumbled more than 3% to US$2,851 per ton, far below the 2,956 points on Tuesday, which was lower since early November. Copper futures closed at 2,865 points. A trader said, "The futures of copper are technically fragile and will trigger some selling. The rising dollar has caused commodities to suffer some profits, but coincides with the metal attracting good trade buying." "The market has absorbed 2,850- The $2,870 purchase price in the region has given copper a certain amount of support. However, the pressure remains. "Analyzing that the market may test 2,850 or even lower, but the fund selling is only temporary. Basemetals.com analyst Adams According to the opinion, "At present, the fund is only taking profit, and the overall upward trend of commodity prices seems to be still intact." The spot price/three-month contract price gap has recently narrowed and has stimulated the market to sell. Spot/three months reverse The spread from the earlier 88/98 to 95 dollars, but still significantly lower than last week's 150 dollars. Inventory recovery fell, reducing 375 tons, reminding the short market supply is still tight. Copper inventory is 57,225 tons, only slightly higher Last week touched a low level of 57,000 since 1990. In October, the copper price rose to a 16-year high of US$3,175 per ton. Many market participants believe that it may not immediately return to this level, but the fundamental factor supporting the price of copper to US$3,000 remains. Barclays Capital Commodity Analysts said that base metal prices will continue to rise as current inventory levels are low and demand may rise early next year. Three-month nickel continued its downward pressure on Wednesday due to the recent increase in inventories. In the US$12,900 trend line support, three-month aluminum closed at 1,803 US dollars per tonne, down 29; aluminum stocks also increased recently. Aluminum prices gained support, benefitting from China's 8% export discount. This kind of offer is likely to stop at the beginning of 2005. Three-month lead fell by US$21 and fell below support at US$930 per metric ton to 923. For the three-month period, zinc fell by US$29 to 1,141 per tonne. Three-month tin fell by US$70 to 8,700 per tonne. COMEX copper market report: New York, December 8 news: Affected by the profitability of the fund caused by the rebound of the US dollar, copper on the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX) fell sharply again on Wednesday, and doubts about the gains of copper futures prompted more investors to withdraw. A portion of the fund’s selloff triggered a stop-loss sell order. Some traders said that the reversal of the US dollar’s ​​exchange rate upwards suppressed the futures’ copper, while others attributed the decline to the recent lack of Asian buy-in, and others said it was a purely speculative sell-off. , leading to the fall of copper in Asia and London, New York copper opened down more than 3 cents on the 8th. This means that this trading day begins with a bear market keynote. Trading in the more active March period closed down about 3% or 3.65 cents to $1.3155 per pound, trading range was 1.2980-1.36. The spot December contract closed down about 3.05 cents to $1.3755 per pound. In other months, the contract fell by 0.75 to 3.65 cents. The dollar rebounded slightly as boosted by short covering. Affected by this, COMEX3 monthly copper fell to the intraday low of 129.80 cents in less than one hour after the opening bell. However, the euro stopped falling against the US dollar. During this period, copper selling pressure weakened and copper prices gradually rebounded, ending up at 131.55 cents per pound. Dealers said that in the short term, the price of copper reacts sensitively to the trend of the US dollar. A further rally in the dollar may trigger copper bulls again, and a resumption of the dollar’s ​​decline may attract arbitrage buyers. It is expected that COMEX's 3-month copper support range will be 128.50-128.70 cents.

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