In response to rising inflationary pressures, the Brazilian central bank announced on April 20 that it raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 12%. This is the third time the bank has raised interest rates during the year. Currently, Brazil’s real interest rate has ranked first in the world. On the same day, the Bank of Thailand also announced its fourth consecutive rate hike, with a range of 25 basis points. However, compared with the frequently raised interest rates, a series of data shows that inflationary pressures that emerging economies are enduring seem to be rising at a faster rate, and the threat of asset bubbles has not eased. At this point, the global economy presents a pattern of concern – when the United States continues to implement unconventional quantitative easing for traditional monetary policy to stimulate economic growth, including but not limited to more countries in emerging economies. For the traditional monetary policy can not achieve the purpose of tightening. Zhang Bin, deputy researcher of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with this reporter that emerging economies are facing double inflationary pressures of internal economic growth and rising external commodity prices, while the latter’s main cause lies in quantitative easing in the United States. The liquidity brought about by monetary policy is rampant. Usually, in order to alleviate inflationary pressures by raising interest rates, a basic requirement is that interest rates should rise faster than inflation. However, the current situation is that the prices of bulk commodities such as international crude oil and food are boosted by hot money in the short term, which makes it difficult for emerging economies to raise interest rates to catch up with inflation. Therefore, the effect of raising interest rates is generally limited. This is particularly evident in Brazil. Whether in the global economy or in the emerging economies, Brazil has shown a rather radical attitude throughout the current round of interest rate hikes. However, when its real interest rate has already been crowned globally, the country's central bank governor Tobini has to accept the fact that its domestic benchmark inflation rate has accelerated to 6.44%, the highest level in more than two years. On the day of the release of this inflation figure, the Brazilian central bank made the latest decision to raise interest rates. It is worth noting that compared with the previous two interest rate hikes of 50 basis points, the Brazilian central bank only raised interest rates by 25 basis points on the 20th. This conservative move has triggered criticism from many Brazilian economists and investors. Brazilian policymakers are not unclear what the inflation threat means. In fact, their radical actions so far have fully demonstrated their determination to fight inflation. After all, historically, inflation is definitely a nightmare to avoid. The country experienced four-figure inflation in the early 1990s, and then it has gone through a lot of hard work to reduce inflation to single digits in recent years, which is also considered to be in recent years. A core factor in the success of the Brazilian economy. However, when the continuous interest rate hike is still unable to erode the flames of inflation, the Brazilian central bank’s morale to raise interest rates has begun to bleak. The Brazilian central bank has said before the release of the latest interest rate decision that it is unlikely to raise interest rates at the rate of economists and investors, because that would cost the Brazilian economy too high. In a recent statement, the bank said it expects inflation to return to the 4.5% annual target by the end of next year. At present, policy makers have pinned their hopes on the natural decline in inflationary pressures after the end of the international commodity price cycle. In addition, the bank said it is considering more ways to rely on interest rate hikes, such as strengthening supervision of banks to slow down consumer credit to tighten monetary policy. The Brazilian central bank, which is a pioneer in raising interest rates in emerging economies, has more or less made people smell a hint of "weakness", and the difficulty of Tobini is actually the common face of central bankers in all emerging economies today. challenge. On the one hand, we must raise interest rates to counter the double inflationary pressures at home and abroad, and the continuous liquidity released by the US quantitative easing monetary policy offsets the tightening effect of these central bank interest rate hikes; on the other hand, radical While raising interest rates may dampen the domestic economy, it will inevitably push up the appreciation of the local currency, thereby damaging exports. More importantly, this will attract more hot money inflows, push up domestic asset prices and increase economic operational risks. "The dilemma of the central banks of emerging economies is that the rate hike is too small to be effective, and the excessive force will attract new capital inflows." Zhang Bin said.
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