How is the “oil shortage” made?

At the end of each year, the "oil shortage," which has arrived at the end of the year, is quite awkward this year. The oil giant’s intention to “sink the mulberry” is intriguing: a few days after the nation’s introduction of the resource tax, “two barrels of oil” called for a “high-profit tax” reduction. The diesel off-duty and purchase restrictions on private gas stations also occurred in the Development and Reform Commission. Cut the price of refined oil within half a month.

With purely "coincidences" to explain such high-frequency point-in-time collisions, it is obviously difficult to block the yo.

"Now part of the distribution company, assuming that the original need to supply 100 tons of diesel every day, is now less than 50 tons to the warehouse." Yesterday, many refiners in East China District confirmed to the Evening News, in addition to providing some "gold customers", must Most diesel fuel is used to ensure its own gas station supply.

According to Zhao Youshan, spokesperson of a private oil company spokesman and chairman of the Petroleum Distribution Committee of the China Business Federation, there are 10,000 private gas stations in the country facing diesel fuel cuts. Is it the natural law of seasonal tensions or the sinister conspiracy of oligarchs to join forces? PetroChina and Sinopec, which are often involved in disputes, once again took the ** trial table.

Ask 1

Is tight supply seasonal or deliberate?

"I can only tell you that our inventory can only guarantee the supply of our own gas stations." Yesterday, the relevant person in charge of Sinopec Shanghai Petroleum Branch responded to reporters. Despite all the hard work, you don’t hear anything.

Can only ensure that the "giant system" is really oil-free or deliberately applied to privately-owned gas stations? The above-mentioned person in charge did not answer directly. However, a salesperson in the petrochemical system told reporters in private that he said: “The private gas station is not the main channel for our supply. Now that we see no money, we jump up.” And Yu.

A set of official data may even reveal the true signs of the supply and demand market: According to the National Development and Reform Commission, from January to September, China produced 18.428 million tons of refined oil, and the apparent consumption of refined oil was 180.43 million tons. There is still a difference between the two.

After July 1, the tariff of domestic refined oil was significantly reduced, which promoted the import of refined oil. Among them, China's imports of refined oil in August amounted to 3.41 million tons, an increase of 33.2% year-on-year, and the increase in imports of diesel fuel reached 61%.

Combined with general figures, the inevitability of “oil shortage” does not seem to have much support. However, the reporter also noted that due to the fact that many data such as PetroChina, Sinopec and Other oligarchs holding oil sources are not transparent, the serious asymmetry of information has made it particularly difficult for the outside world to analyze the actual situation of supply and demand.

“Isn't the current situation of tight supply is due to the fact that the region has not deployed to branch companies? Or is the refinery refining its oil but has not put oil out? This problem is difficult for the outside world to grasp.” Zhu Chunkai, analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information and Petrochemical Co., Ltd., told reporters Frankly. This means that it is almost impossible for the public to get the direct "handle" that "oil shortages are intentional."

However, some external speculation can still provide clues. "If only according to the traditional seasonal factors, such as the autumn harvest, etc., generally large companies have production and oil out of the early planning, including how to supplement the local refinery maintenance gap, maintenance plan has been known as early as a year ago." Zhu Chunkai analyzed with reporters that although the date of commencement of production was affected by accidental factors such as production accidents, it was theoretically impossible to directly cause serious oil shortage due to seasonal routines.

In fact, the seasonal factor is the oil giant's rhetoric in explaining the frequent oil shortages in recent years, but it is seldom tenable. Starting in September of last year, there was a shortage of local diesel supply in many southern provinces. At that time, there were more than 2,000 private gas stations shutting down due to lack of oil. However, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September last year, the country’s diesel production increased year-on-year. About 15%, the first nine months of production capacity reached 89 million tons.

Question 2

Are the two giants obliged to supply oil to private gas stations?

In view of this, the oil-free sale of private gas stations is likely to encounter a set of "glass doors". The oil giants are not only the initiators, but also choose to stand idly by when things get worse. “The shortage of diesel oil at this stage is mainly due to the interruption of supply and purchase in the wholesale sector. Terminal prices have not been directly affected, and there has not been a serious situation in which the operating rate of many bus companies and logistics companies has been affected during the “oil shortage” last year.” Zhu Chunkai Told reporters.

However, the day-to-day rise in the wholesale price has become a signal to the police. “At present, the retail price limit for Shanghai Guosan 3 diesel is 8190 yuan, Zhejiang is 8240 yuan, Jiangsu is 8225 yuan, and the transaction price for social deposits is at least 8500, and the national standard diesel is not lower than this price.” According to Zhu Chunkai's introduction , Piling upside down at least 200 to 300 yuan.

“Since the implementation of the new refined oil pricing mechanism, there has been a certain correlation between domestic oil prices and international oil prices, which is to ensure the profit of oil refining, to protect the enthusiasm of the giants' production and sales, and to ensure the supply of resources from the system. It is very clear that the supply of tight signals." In the long-term follow-up study Zhu Chunkai, compared with the same quarter in previous years, the current inverse price difference is indeed large.

So, according to the oil giant’s idea that “oil must first protect its own gas stations”, the extreme passiveness of the private gas stations that can't get oil or can only get oil at a high price is a matter of course. This has led to a fierce market bombardment.

Zhao Youshan clearly responded: “The oil source is national, not personal, and it is their responsibility to support and develop private enterprises. It is not their responsibility to rely on monopolies to create oil shortages.” China Energy Economic Research Center, Xiamen University Director Lin Boqiang also emphasized that the giant's statement was wrong. “Private gas stations account for more than 45% of the total, and how can we guarantee market supply?”

It is reported that the total amount of oil sold by private enterprises accounts for about 1/3 of China’s oil consumption, and the national tax revenue is turned over to more than 60 billion yuan each year. However, it does not match, according to incomplete statistics, because nearly 80% of oil sources are in the hands of "two barrels of oil", the development of private oil companies have to rely on people's breath.

Ask 3

Is the "profit is king" logic reasonable?

All indications indicate that the "oil shortage" is more than "natural disasters". In view of this, Zhu Chunkai frankly stated that the reason for the tight supply situation was, in the final analysis, that the factors affecting the sales enthusiasm of PetroChina and Sinopec are mainly profits. “The labor costs vary from place to place, oil wells have different oil production rates, refinery technology differences, and refining It is hard to say whether the sector is losing money, but on October 9th, the government reduced the retail price by 300 yuan. This part of the money was dug out of the pockets of PetroChina and Sinopec.”

He analyzed with reporters that the leading role of the profit factor directly caused this year's situation to be more than the same period of last year. "Sometimes the market is short of oil because the oil released by the refinery has accumulated to the 'oil trader' who has soared in eucalyptus oil. There is no real entry into the retail sector. But now, the phenomenon of middlemen selling oil on the market is not much, because the market It has already been expected to lower oil prices."

Zhu Chunkai also said that due to the tightening of **, many businesses across the country have experienced difficulties in operating and the demand has been reduced. The interest rate of oil-sending middlemen is also high, and the operation of “oil-absorbing oil” has become more difficult. "There is neither a middleman's spoils' nor a declining demand compared with the same period. Supply tensions occur at this time, which indicates that it is affected by the decrease in supply profits."

Faced with the public's criticism of the logic that "profit is king," PetroChina and Sinopec also seem to have aggrieved. “Although we are a central state-owned enterprise, we are also self-financing, and our functions are not non-profit-making special legal persons. When revenues are squeezed, we will certainly give priority to ensuring our own interests.” Many oil industry officials expressed this meaning to reporters.

In response, Ma Hongman, a well-known financial commentator, said that although reluctant sellers are the market choices made by manufacturers for gaining advantage and avoiding harm, they must be cautiously done by the oil giants. “After all, monopolistic state-owned enterprises have already enjoyed the advantages of the system, and their operational objectives should be maximizing the pursuit of maximization of the interests of all citizens. More importantly, in the sensitive period when competent authorities take preventing excessive price increases as the most important regulatory target, diesel The suspension of oil supplies will inevitably lead to the result of pushing up prices. The interests of monopolistic oil companies have already run counter to basic social responsibilities."

Related Links Reviewing the "oil shortage" in 2010

Thousands of large trucks waiting for refueling were entrenched on the Sichuan-Shanxi Expressway and the distance was over 20 kilometers. There were three diesel crematoriums in Yubei District of Chongqing Municipality, and all of them were closed. Nearly 10 bodies could not be cremated; some were from Kunming. The bus bound for Dizhou was forced out of service due to lack of oil... These are the true epitome of the "diesel shortage" that spread across most of China in 2010.

Starting in September last year, there was a shortage of local diesel supply in the Guangxi, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang regions, and soon the market panic went northward and westward. In the end, even PetroChina and Sinopec’s own gas stations had to stop or limit supplies, and private gas stations were closed down.

In order to make every effort to clarify the relationship, PetroChina and Sinopec’s official calibers have thrown the “power cuts and power cuts” and “local refinery losses and production cuts” to the market, and attributed the “diesel shortage” to the “electricity shortage” and middlemen. However, it has attracted fierce shelling from market players.