Ning Jiwei, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission: downward pressure is still big next year

On November 24th, Ning Jizhen, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that due to the intertwined economic trends and cyclical changes at home and abroad, it is expected that the downward pressure on the domestic economy will remain large in 2016, and structural contradictions will be quite prominent. It is very difficult to reverse the downward trend in the growth rate of “exports and industrial investment”.

"The support for export and investment in economic growth is weakening. The task of stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand and restructuring the structure next year is heavier." Ning Jiyu at the 21st National Development and Reform System Research Institute and Conference It is said that this year's economic growth performance is hard-won, and the difficulties facing the reform and development of the domestic economy next year cannot be underestimated.

2016 is the first year of the 13th Five-Year Plan. Ning Jizhen revealed that the NDRC is currently studying and formulating the requirements for economic work next year. "How to set the growth target next year is still under study, and it must be linked to social expectations. The society is expected to work hard to promote sustained and healthy economic development." Ning Jizhen said that in order to enhance the vitality of enterprises, it is necessary to reduce the enterprise. The comprehensive cost of government departments needs to study measures such as “tax reduction, fee reduction, interest rate cuts, rate reduction, price reduction” to digest, transfer and compress excess capacity, and actively support the formation of new technologies, products and formats.

Based on the fact that the total number of newly-employed people in the first three quarters of this year exceeded expectations, and the per capita income of urban and rural residents grew slightly faster than the economic growth rate and various energy-saving and environmental protection indicators to complete the full-year target in advance, Ning Jiwei concluded that “it is currently a quality The rate of economic growth, the overall risk is controllable."

However, Ning Jizhen also pointed out that there are still many problems in China's economic development. "Enterprise production and management are more difficult, and investment continues to grow. It is also difficult to expand exports. It is also difficult to expand exports by external demand. There are some difficulties in fiscal revenue growth and corporate profits. Reform and development The measures also have a lot of resistance during the landing process. In the past few months, financial risks have been highlighted."
The world economy is in deep adjustment. Ning Jizhen believes that the pace of world economic recovery next year will still be difficult and tortuous. The Fed’s policy adjustment may bring changes in the international financial market. The low shock of international commodities is still an uncertain factor for the domestic economy or Brings pressure to the input deflation.

“Investment in public goods and public services led by people's livelihood and consumption” was called the main investment direction of the government next year. “Consumption upgrades must be guided, and investment should be transferred to consumption upgrade services to create a better consumer environment.” Ning Jiwei stressed that investment cannot be invested, and infrastructure investment can serve both production and service consumption. Investment in domestic public goods and public services has great potential.

The relationship between China's economic growth rate and quality benefits has been widely discussed by all parties. Ning Jizhen said that economic growth is not the only standard in itself, but it will still be a primary indicator, which is determined by the current economic system. "All indicators are related to speed. The current research observations show that the correlation between efficiency and speed is still very large. The speed of most provinces in the country has come down, and the benefits have come down. Some local economies have fallen faster than speed. ”

In addition, Ning Jizhen said that it is necessary to continue to deepen the reform of state-owned enterprises, the reform of fiscal and taxation financial systems, the reform of the investment price system, the reform of rural ecological civilization, and the reform of the open economic system, in order to enhance the vitality of the economy. We should give play to the leading role of scientific and technological innovation, organize and implement some major scientific and technological engineering and technological transformation projects, and support innovative enterprises. At present, a series of deployments by the government need to be further implemented.

“The most crucial thing is to implement reforms and adjustments in response to the 'currently low efficiency of enterprises and difficult production and operation'.” Ning Jizhen said that active fiscal policies still need to be subject to “structural tax reduction and universal tax reduction”. "Starting, increase structural adjustment.

Ning Jizhen also pointed out that in the future, it is necessary to speed up the pilot of new urbanization and release the economic growth momentum. “Convert the pilot to be reproducible, scalable, and work on a larger scale.”

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