Photovoltaic industry development review in the first half of 2017 and outlook for the second half of the year

On July 19, 2017, the photovoltaic industry's development review in the first half of 2017 and the second half of the situation outlook seminar were held in Beijing.
Wang Bohua, Secretary General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, gave a speech on the development review in the first half of 2017 and the outlook for the second half of the year. The author has compiled according to the speech, as follows:

Overview of the development of photovoltaic industry - scale growth - fast industry layout - excellent application market - live industry level - high scale continues to expand, cost continues to decline, technology continues to improve

First, polysilicon production in the first half of the year was about 115,000 tons, up 21.1% year-on-year; industry capacity utilization rate was above 90%; production cost fell below 9 US dollars/Kg; gross profit margin was above 20%.
Second, in the first half of the year, China's wafer production exceeded 36GW, up 20% year-on-year; industry capacity utilization rate was above 80%; production cost fell below 6 cents/watt; gross margin was slightly different (single, large).
Third, China's battery production in the first half of the year was about 32GW, an increase of about 28%; capacity utilization rate of more than 80%; single and polycrystalline high-efficiency battery efficiency increased to 21% and 19%; industry gross margin is above 10%;
Fourth, China's component production in the first half of the year was about 34GW, an increase of 25.9%; in the second quarter, the capacity utilization rate was above 85%; the component processing cost was below 12 cents/watt; the industry gross margin was above 10%.
Import and export characteristics of January-May 2017:
1. The monthly export value of photovoltaic products exceeds 1 billion US dollars, and the monthly average export value is 1.127 billion US dollars;
2. The export value of photovoltaic products decreased year-on-year, while the export volume increased year-on-year;
3. Under the downward trend of the unit price of photovoltaic products, the unit price of monocrystalline silicon wafers remained stable;
4. With the establishment of overseas factories, the main export market for silicon wafers is being transferred from Taiwan to Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian markets;
5. The export market of components has changed from mature markets in Europe, America and Japan to emerging markets, including India, Brazil, Pakistan, Mexico, etc.;
6. The monthly import volume of polysilicon exceeds 10,000 tons, and the monthly average import volume is about 112,000 tons.

Expanding global production capacity in Europe: Jingke, Chint, Trina, CLP Canada: Artes USA: Serrafo, Shunfeng Optoelectronics Brazil: BYD, Artes South Africa: Jingke India: Hairun, Longji, GCL, etc. Malaysia: Jingke, Jingao, Longji, Hanwha and other Vietnam: Trina, Artes, Jingao, Zhongdian, etc. Thailand: Chint, Tenghui, Tianhe, Artes, GCL, etc. Japan: Serrafo, Suntech Korea: CLP, Hanwha
Capacity expansion is still strong Oriental hopes to build 120,000 tons of polysilicon plant in Xinjiang In the first half of 2017, GCL-Poly will build a 60,000-ton-scale polysilicon plant in Xinjiang. Jingke will build a 2GW monocrystalline silicon plant in Xinjiang to expand the battery and wafer in Xining. Production capacity of Yongxiang shares in Leshan expansion of 50,000 tons of polycrystalline silicon, Australia, Artes, Dongfang Risheng successively expanded in Baotou Jineng 2GWHIT battery expansion in Jinzhong Central GW-level expansion in Hohhot Zhonglai GWN-type battery landing Jiangsu Zhejiang Jingke implements “multiplying” plan in Jiangxi
Technological progress accelerates world record progress In the first half of the year, Japan’s Kaneka company developed 26.3% of HBC Battery Avenue, once again creating a new world record, an increase of 0.7% over the previous record (single)
Germany's Fraunhofer uses the topcon technology to develop a conversion efficiency of 21.9% for N-type polycrystalline cells, setting a new world record (more)
Trina Solar develops 24.13% of the large-area 6-inch full-back electrode solar cell (IBC) efficiency avenue, creating a new world record (middle)
Stanford Research Group studied 23.6% of the conversion efficiency of perovskite-silicon-based laminate cells. (new)
The industrialization of advanced technology began to accelerate the black silicon technology and PERC technology to become the mainstream of the current technological innovation of battery cells. Enterprises generally use these two technologies to carry out technical transformation on the production line. In the first half of the year, the market price of high-efficiency battery chips is also significantly higher than that of ordinary batteries. .
N-type batteries have attracted much attention, and companies such as Jiangsu Zhonglai and Tianjin Zhonghuan have begun to accelerate the deployment of N-type batteries.
HIT batteries began to accelerate industrialization, and Jinneng, Longji and other companies began to promote the industrial production of HIT batteries.
The automation and intelligent transformation of the component links has also begun to accelerate.
Overall, the proportion of research and development investment in Neo enterprises is lower than the global leading level, and there is little difference between them.
Photovoltaic power generation costs continue to decline PV modules have fallen by nearly 25% in the past two years and will continue to show a downward trend in the future.
Photovoltaic power generation has initially become economical, and has been lower than traditional power supply costs in many places around the world, achieving parity online access.
Reducing non-technical costs as soon as possible is the key to promoting China's PV evaluation online.
UAE: Photovoltaic bidding 2.99 cents / kWh;
Chile: PV minimum 2.91 cents / kWh;
India: Photovoltaic bidding 5.5 cents / kWh;
Germany: Photovoltaic bidding averages 7.41 Euro cents / kWh.
Trump's "Paris Agreement" behavior can not hinder the trend of historical development, can not affect the world trend
The market demand is still strong. In the first half of the year, the domestic PV market was once again affected by the 630 rush. In June, the installed capacity hit 13.15GW, of which 10.07GW was power station, down 8% year-on-year, and distributed 3.08GW, up 8 times year-on-year;
In the first half of the year, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation was 24.40GW, up 9% year-on-year, of which 7.29GW was photovoltaic power plant, down 16% year-on-year, and 7.11GW was distributed PV, up 2.9 times year-on-year;
In the first half of the year, the cumulative installed capacity reached 101.82GW, including 84.39GW for photovoltaic power plants and 14.73GW for distributed photovoltaics.
Market layout and structure transformation The speed of domestic distributed PV development accelerated, and the proportion of new installed capacity increased from about 10% in the first half of 2016 to nearly 30% in 2017;
The construction of domestic centralized photovoltaic power plants has rapidly migrated from the northwest to the central and eastern regions (more than 50% in the first half of the year);
The domestic market has developed rapidly, and foreign emerging markets have risen rapidly. India has replaced Japan as the world's third largest market and China's largest exporter. (from >95% to about 30%)
Application diversification trends begin to emerge
The use of mobile power application photovoltaic products in shared bicycles promotes the intelligent development of shared bicycles. At the same time, it also forced the battery to change in design, packaging and so on.
In the first half of the year, the use of photovoltaics for household use has become a trend for household appliances to enter the homes of thousands of households. It will also promote changes in marketing models, product quality, and after-sales services.
A high proportion of renewable energy Qinghai Province also achieved 168 hours of clean energy supply during the June 17-23 Youth Fair. The UK achieved 24-hour unfired coal-fired power plant operations in April this year.
Economic benefits begin to show a trend of differentiation (notable)
Industry chain dimension: From the perspective of various links in the industry chain, the profitability shows a downward trend from top to bottom, the silicon material link is the strongest, the component link is weak (high upstream price, and some of the components such as foundry reduce the profitability of components). From the perspective of specific products, there is also a trend of differentiation, such as monocrystalline silicon wafers, high-efficiency cells, high-efficiency components and other market demand has significantly improved. (Two ends are outside - two ends...)
Time dimension: From the quarterly perspective, the first quarter was not prosperous in the market, the component prices were slightly depressed, and the profitability of most companies was generally poor. In the second quarter, market demand surged, prices also rebounded slightly, and corporate profitability began to increase.
Enterprise Dimensions: From the perspective of specific enterprises, there are still more than 20% of enterprises showing losses. The main reason for the loss is the lack of capacity utilization. Before the financial burden was heavy, the industrial development was divided.

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