Subject to the "two-out" industry pattern and the reduction of polysilicon subsidies in European countries, polysilicon prices have declined to some extent this year, and many upstream companies are hard to find. In July, polysilicon prices suddenly rebounded strongly, up about 10% from the lowest point, and domestic PV companies are expected to take the most difficult time. Polysilicon prices have been on the "roller coaster" this year. From the beginning of the year to June, the price plummeted by 30%, and many upstream companies are very difficult. "Because of the "two-out" industry pattern and the reduction of polysilicon subsidies in European countries, polysilicon prices have declined to some extent this year," said Ying Xue, chief strategy officer of Yingli. In July, polysilicon prices suddenly rebounded strongly. GCL-Poly, LDK and other companies said that the spot price of polysilicon has continued to rise recently, and is currently up about 10% from the lowest point in the first half of the year. Domestic PV companies are expected to take the most difficult time. The worst time components and batteries suffered large-scale destruction, and the price dropped rapidly. After experiencing a hot 2010, domestic polysilicon enterprises suffered a cold spell in the first half of this year. It is reported that the situation of foreign merchants' single order is mainly concentrated in Italy, Spain and other countries. One is that the buyer's capital chain is broken, and the contract is not allowed to be executed. The other is that the buyer is down and the price is only 2/ of the contract price. 3 or less, if the seller does not sell, only the goods can be accumulated in the port. It is understood that the impact of the market on the photovoltaic industry in the first half of this year has gradually spread from small and medium-sized enterprises to large enterprises. Some large enterprises have sold their prices at a reduced price, and profits have fallen sharply. Data show that from the beginning of this year to the end of June, polysilicon prices have fallen by 30%, and downstream PV modules and batteries have fallen by 20%. Ma Xuelu said that photovoltaics suffered from low valleys this year and related to the reduction of PV subsidies in European countries such as Germany and Italy. The installers of various countries are uncertain and directly affect the export of China's PV companies. In addition to the “frozen winter†policy of European countries, the rapid expansion of domestic enterprises is also difficult to blame. In the past year, Yingli Green Energy's production capacity has doubled to 1 GW; Wuxi Suntech's capacity has increased 2.5 times, from 700 MW to 1800 MW, in addition to Changzhou Tianhe, Suzhou The production capacity of companies such as Artes has also doubled, while the global PV market has not doubled. Foreign merchants’ orders were broken, European policies were adjusted, expansion was too fast, and prices fell rapidly. These factors have collectively erupted, allowing the photovoltaic industry to enter the winter season in the first half of this year. Reversing the moment The dilemma comes quickly and goes fast. The polysilicon industry has quietly turned around when people are still discussing how long the “cold winter†will last. The turning point comes first from foreign countries. “The global market will definitely turn to the economy in the second half of the year.†A person from the Jiangxi Saiwei Marketing Department said that the photovoltaic industry has entered a wave period, and the current European policy adjustment has ended. Photovoltaic installations in various countries have entered a recovery period. It is reported that September 30 and October 31 are the PV installation deadlines of Italy and Germany respectively. Most enterprises in these two countries will definitely pay attention to the project before these two time points. An industry source said. “Since mid-June, European PV demand has started to rebound sharply, and the inventory progress has been obvious. By the end of June, the component inventory has dropped from 10 GW at the end of April to 8 GW, and the normal inventory level of 4-5 GW has been Greatly close. It is expected that in July, industry sales will enter a relatively strong period.†Hua Bao Securities analyst Chen Liang said. In addition, after the earthquake in Japan, European policies have also changed. Siro, a senior analyst at OFweek Solar PV Network, believes that due to the crisis of the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan, Germany has shut down nuclear power plants in recent months, and in the future new energy sources, photovoltaic power generation is most likely to replace nuclear power. At present, if the total amount of nuclear power generation in Germany can be replaced by photovoltaic power generation, a total of 175 GW of installed capacity is required, which means that the average installed capacity per year in the next decade is 17.5 GW. Surprisingly, domestic market demand, which has previously occupied a small percentage of polysilicon demand, is expected to start in the near future. It is reported that the “12th Five-Year Renewable Energy Development Plan†has been reported to the State Council. In 2015, China’s PV installed capacity is 10 GW, and by 2020, this number will be 20 GW. More than doubled the capacity of the original. "China's current PV installed capacity is less than 500 GW. It is foreseeable that the start of the domestic market will also drive the global PV industry out of the winter." Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, recently revealed that the local government of a certain province in the west The on-grid price of 1.15 yuan per kWh will be guaranteed for the photovoltaic projects completed before September 30 this year. It is estimated that the total installed capacity will reach 800,000 kilowatts. By then, China's new PV power generation capacity will exceed 1 million kilowatts during the year. It is reported that the major wind farm operators in China have learned about the province's policy of guaranteeing the on-grid price of photovoltaic power generation, and have flocked to the province to develop photovoltaic power generation projects. Meng Xianyu said that the National Energy Administration has now set a goal of making China's solar power installed capacity reach 10 million kilowatts during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, including photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal power generation; therefore, it will be in the western Xinjiang during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. The Tibet, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai and Yunnan provinces have developed a total of 500 kilowatts of installed capacity; the Ministry of Finance also proposed to make a 1 million kilowatts of solar roof solar energy plan from 2013 to 2015, the sum of these two has been 800 Ten thousand kilowatts. According to Meng Xianyu, there are indications that starting from 2011, China's PV market will gradually start, and the situation of “two heads outside†in the PV industry will be improved. In addition to domestic demand factors, the recent renewed power cut policy is also one of the reasons for the rise in polysilicon prices. According to the EnergyTrend survey, the price of polysilicon in the spot market is still rising. The current transaction price falls between US$55/kg, while the spot price of overseas polysilicon is only US$50/kg. This is also the first increase since the price of polysilicon continued to fall in the first half of the year. Relevant manufacturers said that the spot price of polysilicon was strong, mainly due to the warming of demand in the mainland market. On the other hand, due to the pressure of power cuts in East China, it is possible to expand to industrial users in the future, which will limit the future output of polysilicon plants, thus increasing the current demand capacity of the Tailu market.
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