Near the end of the year, the trend of future commodity prices has received much attention. Australian AME Group, which specializes in metal and mining economic research, recently released a research report that despite the decline in China's crude steel output in recent months, iron ore supply is still very tight, and in the short term, China's demand for imported iron ore is still Will grow strongly. The China Iron and Steel Industry Association report that the supply and demand of iron ore is generally balanced in 2012. Subsequently, the supply of international iron ore market began to appear excessive, and iron ore prices will enter a slow decline cycle. Imported iron ore demand will grow strongly In 2011, China's steel output continued to grow. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics and China Customs, China's crude steel output in November was 49.883 million tons, down 0.2% year-on-year, which is the lowest monthly output and average daily output this year. However, China's crude steel output in the first 11 months was 603.984 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%. From January to November, China's imported steel billets were equivalent to 15.9 million tons of crude steel, and exports were equivalent to 48.04 million tons of crude steel. The net export of imports and exports was equivalent to 32.14 million tons of crude steel, an increase of 6.32 million tons from the 25.38 million tons in the same period of last year. 24.5%; steel production decreased by net exports, the apparent consumption of crude steel in the first 11 months was 598.84 million tons, an increase of 8.96%. China Steel Association expects that according to the situation in previous years, the output of November and 12 will not change much. For example, in December, the Nissan production level in November will be maintained. In 2011, the steel output will reach 68.253 million tons, an increase of 45.3 million tons, or 7.1%, from the 63,723 tons in 2010 (China Statistical Yearbook 2011 edition). According to the current trend, China Steel Association has a net export of about 3 million tons in December and a net export of 35.12 million tons. The output was reduced by net exports, and the apparent annual consumption of crude steel was 647.41 million tons, an increase of 6.1% over the 2010 figure of 609.93 million tons. This increase is 1.4 percentage points lower than the 7.5% increase in China's steel consumption this year than the forecast report released by the World Steel Association (WSA) in October. AME believes that although China's crude steel output has declined in recent months, iron ore supply is still very tight, and iron ore supply is difficult to meet the needs of Chinese steel companies. In the short term, domestic steel demand is expected to pick up, and China's demand for imported iron ore will grow strongly. China has begun to seek to increase imports of iron ore from Canada and Russia due to the ban on iron ore mining in India's second largest iron ore production province, Karnataka, and India's increase in iron ore export tariffs. AME pointed out that China's domestic mining of iron ore grades is lower, mining costs are higher, and some high-cost iron ore will support iron ore prices in the medium term. China's domestic iron ore is difficult to meet demand growth, so it is necessary to increase the import of low-cost iron ore from Brazil and Australia. Excess market will cause iron ore prices to fall. AME expects that the new iron ore expansion project to be put into operation in 2012 will increase capacity by 202 million tons. The capacity that has already been put into operation, together with the new capacity, will make the supply situation in the iron ore market better. However, it also expects that by 2014, China's seaborne iron ore demand will still be higher than supply capacity. The delay in the project and the huge investment in infrastructure projects will become the challenges facing the iron ore industry. In addition, the upward trend in resource tax burden remains a fundamental issue in the operation of the iron ore industry. In addition to putting pressure on mines that are currently in production, raising the tax burden will also affect potential investments in future iron ore projects. China Metallurgical Industry Economic Development Research Center believes that in the absence of consideration of iron ore production in Africa and other regions, the international iron ore will be slightly surplus in 2012. Considering the negative impact of iron ore expansion and production time nodes, production speed and ore price decline on the existing high-cost iron ore output, iron ore supply and demand are generally balanced in 2012, and the price will return to before September 2011. There is almost no possibility, and the possibility of big ups and downs is not great. In the first half of next year, it is likely to continue the downturn in the second half of 2011. If the global economy can re-enter the recovery track in the second half of the year, iron ore prices may bottom out. However, the agency affiliated with China Steel Association believes that the new capacity of iron ore in Brazil and Australia will reach 169 million tons in 2013, which can meet the new crude steel output of 93 million tons. The supply of international iron ore market begins to appear excessive, iron ore. Stone prices will enter a slow decline cycle. The agency believes that: China's domestic mine production costs are relatively high, when the price rises, high-cost mines put into production to increase supply, when the price falls, the domestic mine supply will be greatly reduced, thereby preventing the price from falling systematically. Therefore, domestic mines have become a stabilizer for international iron ore prices to a certain extent.
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