Recently, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that on the basis of the financial subsidies for new energy vehicles declining year by year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China in the first quarter of 2019 completed 304,000 and 299,000 respectively, an increase of 102.7% and 109.7% respectively. It is estimated that the output of new energy vehicles this year may exceed 1.5 million, which is about 179 times of the annual output in 2011. The reporter's investigation found that since the four ministries jointly issued the "Notice on Further Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" on March 26, the fact that the new energy vehicle industry has been "weaning" has not slowed the development of China's new energy vehicle industry. . “shuffle†has intensified, challenges have increased, and opportunities have increased to become the “new normal†of the next stage of the market. Especially in the field of new energy passenger vehicles, the rapid elimination of weak enterprises, the incremental sharing of charging facilities, and the substantial increase in passenger experience will become Obvious trend.
The smart concept car exhibited by a company at the 3rd World Intelligence Conference Intelligent Technology Exhibition
Policy has little effect on “head†companies
The 2019 International Auto Show held in Shanghai recently was dubbed by some media and industry professionals as the “International New Energy Auto Showâ€. Of the more than 1,500 new vehicles at the show, 218 were new energy vehicles. New-energy car companies, domestic traditional car companies, and "new vehicles" have new energy passenger cars released.
The subsidy has turned back, and the market fever has not risen. A number of car owners and industry experts told reporters that this year's subsidy policy has turned back. Although the strength is far from the market expectation, the general trend has not changed. No matter whether it is a domestic traditional car enterprise that is “not bad money†or a new force that is “hotâ€, many companies have already begun to respond to the layout, or quickly launch a specific insured plan to “stable peopleâ€.
For example, after the policy was released, Weilai Automobile launched the ES8 insurance price plan for the first time; GAC New Energy also launched a “full compensation†plan to keep the price unchanged after the current subsidy; Dongfeng Nissan also targeted its Shuangyi·Pure Electric Introducing the insured policy, as long as the card is completed before June 25, you can enjoy the full subsidy policy in 2018; BYD, the future car, and SAIC Roewe and SAIC MASTER issued an official announcement that they will still enjoy the full subsidy in 2018 before June 25. Amount.
“The negative impact of the policy on the head enterprises of the industry is very small,†said the person in charge of Beiqi New Energy, “and it is also conducive to a benign market competition environment, so that quality car companies can obtain resources through competition and consumer recognition, and grow better. ".
Zhao Chen, vice president of Minmetals Securities Investment, believes that the impact of the increase in subsidies for the retreat has been mixed, but the trend is conducive to "head" enterprises. On the one hand, the current subsidy policy “weaning†speeds up, but it has little impact; on the other hand, due to their strong technical capabilities and large market share, they are also expected to profit from the “transaction†in the double-point policy that began this year. Form another "subsidy." Li Yunfei, deputy general manager of BYD Auto Sales Company, told reporters that BYD has a large number of points in its hands, which can replace some of the reduced subsidies after the transaction.
Industry people generally believe that capital will accelerate the concentration of “head†enterprises with advantages, while the financing costs of other companies will increase rapidly. Some of the “eat subsidy†companies that lack self-sustainability will be quickly eliminated. Zhang Chi, chairman of Xinding Rongsheng Capital Management Co., Ltd., which invests in a number of new power-making enterprises, also believes that in the future, Jiangxi, Guizhou, Shanghai and other places will have a group of new technologies with weak technology, low visibility and low valuation. Enterprises will face the fate of being quickly eliminated. The reporter learned from an industry person that as of 2018, there are more than 480 new energy vehicle manufacturing enterprises in China, and only about 10% can survive after "weaning".
Experts believe that the increase in market elimination rate may also cause problems for consumers. Li Yunfei reminded that in the future, consumers may have bought a car, but the car company has already closed down and disappeared. Such "orphan" cars are very unfavorable for the protection of consumer rights, and may also have hidden dangers in terms of safety. The market and management departments should pay attention to them and respond in advance.
"Shared charging" mode is concerned
According to the data of China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance (hereinafter referred to as “Charging Allianceâ€), the scale of China's charging infrastructure construction has continued to grow rapidly in recent years. Since the first quarter of this year, the monthly average growth rate of national charging infrastructure has remained at around 80%. As of the end of March 2019, the number of public charging piles was 384,000, and the number of private charging piles was 537,000.
Experts believe that this round of policy shift to subsidized charging (hydrogen) facilities will further increase the growth rate of domestic charging infrastructure. Yang Min, deputy secretary general of the China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, said that by the end of 2019, the public charging facilities will reach 450,000 units, and the private facilities will reach 950,000 units. The total holding capacity will reach 1.4 million units. 3.2:1 or so level. She believes that the current development of China's charging industry is "suitable for demand, reasonable advancement."
However, the reporter learned in the interview that the difficulty in charging electricity and the difficulty of building a “pile†for private individuals still affect the “entry rate†of new energy vehicles to varying degrees.
Yang Min believes that the adoption of preferential electricity prices, open electricity sales, and the use of green energy can effectively reduce electricity costs. Since then, the state will also refine the relevant policy subsidy rules for charging equipment operators, which will help consumers enjoy lower charging prices.
"Before 2027, there were 300,000 electric vehicle customers in Beijing who could not install charging piles at home." Liu Xiaomin, executive director and general manager of Beijing Huashang Sanyou New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., a charging facility operator, said that the current "electric piles" still exist. gap. According to the charging alliance data, in the first quarter of 2019, more than one-third of the monthly charging facilities were not built. The main reason for this situation is that the property does not cooperate, lack of special parking spaces and other difficult factors to build "pile".
Liu Xiaomin believes that promoting the sharing of charging facilities will help to quickly solve the above problems. “One charging station is a huge waste of resources. Now the electric car owners will not charge more than twice a week.†He said that “pile master†will share the charging pile idle time through the app platform operated by the enterprise, not only It can alleviate the demand pressure of electric piles and also generate economic income. According to the reporter's understanding, in addition to the Chinese business three excellent, some of the "head" companies in the field, such as the star charging, are also operating their own shared electric pile platform.
"The development of this round of charging facilities should be based on the principle of less consumption of public resources." Liu Xiaomin called for policy subsidies for charging facilities operators to be targeted to enterprises with low resource consumption and high operational efficiency. “One litter of bees subsidizes†and wastes resources.
AI technology dramatically enhances passenger car experience
"In the past, new energy vehicles were driven by policy-driven growth, and now the dual drive of 'market + policy' has become a new driving force, and the industry is likely to achieve high-quality development," said the person in charge of BAIC New Energy.
After the subsidies fell back in 2019, the new energy market gradually entered the market-oriented process. Tesla entered the Chinese market exclusively, and new energy products of traditional car companies such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi also came in line. China's own brands have not retreated in the new environment, and have launched products that are being developed based on market demand. The industry generally agrees that this round of subsidies will accelerate the trend of declining, which means that the car will make money when the "making a good car" metabolic screen, in the future "making a good car" is the way to stand in the market environment.
Therefore, the reporter clearly felt from the current international auto show that all brands of pure electric vehicles are in the form of appearance, interior and exterior decoration, internal LCD screen, central control screen and so on. For example, the shape of BYD's complete vehicle has changed a lot, and the sense of design of GAOX's AIONS and AIONLX has improved.
The bigger thing is that AI technology is also widely used. Most of the brand cars support voice interactive functions, which can help intelligently plan the optimal route based on the travel habits of the owners. Some will also activate the wake-up mode to alleviate the fatigue of the owner. Some concept models even support human eye tracking, “brushing the faceâ€, etc. "Black technology." For example, Jinkang SERES SF5 is the first electric SUV equipped with Ali AliOS 2.0 system. It has AI self-deep learning ability, which can accurately identify the command requirements of each occupant in the car. It can realize one-click convenient payment in the car. The intelligent AR instrument navigation system displays all-round information in real time.
Zhang Chi told reporters that with the gradual development of 5G technology and the wide application of big data technology, various AI technologies represented by autonomous driving will become the standard of new energy vehicles. The ability to achieve interoperability is the unique advantage of new energy vehicles compared to traditional fuel vehicles.
The reporter also found that in addition to hardware competition, many new power-making enterprises are still building up upgrade service areas and optimizing the driving environment of new energy vehicles. Weilai Automobile announced at the exhibition that it will promote the “one button power-on†service provided by Weilai Auto owners to all brands of electric vehicle users, including pick-up and power-up, mobile charging and charging services and quick change. Electric services, etc. Many investors in the new energy auto industry believe that these upgrades have greatly improved the experience of new energy passenger cars, reflecting the return of new energy vehicles to the "car for people" law.
Zhang Xiyong, general manager of BAIC Group, believes that the market is now entering a period of transitional maturity in which demand is stabilizing and the industry returns to the market. Domestic auto consumption demand is gradually escaping from policy stimulus and begins to rely on endogenous power to grow steadily.
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