Recently, some pessimistic expectations for monoammonium in the industry have gradually increased. It is rumored that the decline before the Spring Festival will be around 200 yuan / ton, traders began to sell the remaining goods, and heard that the trader Shandong 55% powder ammonium accepted warehousing price is 2500 yuan / ton or so. Most of the mono-ammonium enterprises have no intention of price adjustment. At present, the 55% powdered monoammonium mainstream factory price in Hubei is stable at 2,450-2,500 yuan / ton. At present, only Henan enterprises will cut the price by 50 yuan / ton, and the low-end acceptance will be factory at 2330. Yuan / ton. It is rumored that the recent shipment of monoammonium is not ideal. There are few transactions in the big orders, and most of them are small orders.
　　
So, does this situation represent the risk of a comprehensive price cut by monoammonium? The author briefly analyzes it based on the situation.
First, downstream demand is the most important. After the Phosphate Compound Fertilizer Conference, the increase in monoammonium was large, and the compound fertilizer enterprises did not accept high prices. It is understood that although there are transactions at high prices, the overall transaction volume is not large. The author learned from the purchasers of large-scale compound fertilizer enterprises in the downstream that although they still have the willingness to get the goods, but now the price of monoammonium is too high, or the risk of falling top, the company is not willing to get the goods, and the company’s own inventory can still maintain half. More than a month to a month or so, some of the low-priced purchases of low-priced ammonium have not yet arrived at the factory, so the company is temporarily on the sidelines, and the willingness to get a large amount of goods in the short term is not strong. The industry said that if the price of monoammonium has been rising slowly, then it may gradually accept the current high price. However, they also said that there is still a gap in the demand for mono-ammonium in winter storage. Many large-scale plants still need to supplement the mono-ammonium stocks in the later stage. The low-investment compound fertilizer small plants also need to purchase one ammonium in the later stage. Many of them just suffer from poor winter storage and poor collection. purchase.
Second, the company's own supply side. Although the recent situation of receiving new orders is not ideal, most of the one-ammonium enterprises have low stocks, and some pending orders are still being executed. Some enterprises are ready to execute orders until January, and there are tens of thousands of pending orders. Sichuan Dachang has a half-month maintenance plan in December. Recently, some parts of Hubei's large factories have been repaired. The overall operating rate of monoammonium should remain relatively low. Hubei Dachang, as a weather vane, still has confidence in the mono-ammonium market. In the short term, there should be no intention to lower the price.
Finally, a mono-ammonium material. Recently, most companies are concerned about phosphate rock. Due to safety and environmental protection issues, some phosphate mines in Yichang and Hubei provinces are shut down. Some of the phosphate mines will face permanent shutdown. Phosphate rock is a non-renewable resource in China. If the supply is reduced, it will face price increases. It will be difficult to get the goods, and the import of phosphate rock is impractical. At present, the phosphate rock has risen by 30-50 yuan/ton and some of the mono-ammonium enterprises have not much stock, lest the high ore price is high. Therefore, the enterprises in Hubei and Sichuan are currently sourcing from the Yunnan-Guizhou region. In the later period, the phosphate rock entered the holiday stage. The industry believes that there is still room for phosphate rock. At present, the company's attention to sulfur is gradually decreasing. Although the price of sulfur continues to decline, the company believes that it is a rational callback, and it takes time for the raw material market to reflect the monoammonium. The sulfur is mostly imported, and there should be no major supply problems. Liquid ammonia has little effect on the cost of monoammonium. It has fallen back recently, but it is still at a high level.
In summary, due to the unsatisfactory demand, the risk of price reduction of monoammonium may appear dark and steady, but the supply side is still tense, and the support of raw materials to the cost is still strong, and there is still a gap in the demand for monoammonium in the later period. The price of ammonium may be temporarily stabilized in the game stage of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises and mono-ammonium enterprises. In the later stage, it is still necessary to pay attention to the collection of winter storage compound fertilizer and when the winter storage price is clear.
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