1. The current status of profit distribution in the tungsten industry is concentrated on two-end tungsten concentrates and back-end carbide tools: upstream companies with hand-held resources, through the integration of the middle and lower smelting and primary processing industries, to capture their profit margins; Tool deep processing enterprises consolidate their oligopoly status through continuous product development and innovation, while enhancing their bargaining power upstream to maintain and improve product profitability. 2. We believe that the future changes in industry profits come from three aspects: First, the upstream resource enterprises are eroding the profits of downstream low-end and medium-end cemented carbide enterprises; second, the new round of economic cycle drives the demand of the industry, and the imbalance between supply and demand drives the rise of tungsten prices; The third is the sharing of profits from the technological advancement enterprises in the back-end deep processing. 1) In terms of industry profit distribution, the profits of downstream middle and low-end cemented carbide enterprises are forced to transfer to upstream resource enterprises. Affected by the government and the impact of small mine capacity bottlenecks, the concentration of upstream industries will continue to increase. Through the pre-industry integration, the “tungsten concentrate-hard alloy†link has responded quickly to the upward price increase of resources; however, the bargaining power of the “carbide-tool†link is still weak, and the industry profit of cemented carbide enterprises Will be drawn by upstream resource companies. 2) In terms of industry profit growth, optimistic about the warming of demand will drive up the price of tungsten. The terminal demand of tungsten has two characteristics: strong periodicity and common dominant at home and abroad. We believe that under the current foreseeable improvement in global liquidity and the rebound in external demand, tungsten accounts for a large proportion of external demand. Therefore, demand elasticity is stronger than that of domestic demand-oriented metals such as copper. We are also optimistic about the global manufacturing boom. The economic cycle bottomed out. Therefore, the demand for tungsten with strong cycle characteristics is also worthy of optimism. The imbalance between supply and demand has pushed up the price of tungsten, and upstream resource companies have benefited the most. 3) In the long run, strengthening the back-end deep-processing products (knives) and being able to participate in international competition is the only way to share profits from the back end of the industry chain. The global cemented carbide back-end deep processing is an oligopolistic market. The international Big Three almost monopolizes the global high-end tool market, and its added value is ten times or even hundreds of times higher than that of tungsten concentrate. Continuous product development and innovation is the core competitiveness of the back-end deep processing field. Enterprises with strong resources, capital and R&D strength are expected to narrow the technology gap first and share the oligopolistic profits of the back-end international giants.
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