In 2009, the deepening of the subprime mortgage crisis will make the recovery of the world economy difficult, and the domestic economy will slow down under the influence of various unfavorable factors. According to the forecast results of the National Information Center's macroeconomic forecasting model, the domestic economic growth rate is expected to be 9% in 2009, down 0.5 percentage points from 2008.
First, the overall growth rate will slow down. According to the domestic economic growth rate in 2009, the growth rate will decrease by 0.5%, and the automobile market growth amplification factor will be calculated as 5. In 2009, domestic automobile sales will increase by 5.5% compared with 2008, and the growth rate will decrease by 2.5 percentage points. Considering several other influencing factors and levying fuel tax, it is expected to increase by about 4%. The annual production and sales volume of automobiles is close to 10 million.
Second, the growth of commercial vehicles will be better than passenger cars, the most difficult for spare parts enterprises. From the spare parts market, 2009 will not only face the pressure of the decline of the domestic downstream vehicle market, but also bear the huge international market pressure. The auto parts industry has long been integrated with the international auto market, and the main markets are in developed countries such as Europe and the United States. Therefore, the impacts encountered are relatively straightforward and have a large decline.
From the perspective of the commercial vehicle market, the rapid decline in growth rate in the second half of 2008 was mainly due to the official implementation of the National Standards on July 1, and the impact of sales release in the first half of the year. This effect will last for up to one year, 2009 The market will resume normal operation in the second half of the year. In 2009, the state will increase the government's public investment to ensure the growth of domestic demand, thus driving the truck market. At the same time, in the case of “energy-saving and emission reduction†restricted passenger cars, it is possible to foresee the future market demand for passenger cars. Will maintain a more modest growth. In addition, a few years after the new rural construction policy was put forward, the micro-commercial vehicle market has started to start, and the market has grown rapidly. From the growth structure of various types of commercial vehicles in the past few months since September 2008, the micro-commercial vehicles are in commercial vehicles. The only model that keeps growing. In general, large passengers, heavy trucks and micro-cars in commercial vehicles will be able to withstand the macroeconomic downturn and export slowdown to a certain extent, driven by factors such as the implementation of public transportation systems and the construction of new rural infrastructure. Impact.
Judging from the passenger car market, the income growth of residents has dropped significantly and the impact of passenger car restrictions on the inevitable traffic, as well as the upcoming “fuel taxâ€, the growth of the private car market in 2009 is very large. In comparison, the growth of the passenger car market in 2009 will be relatively lagging behind commercial vehicles.
The third, second and third-tier markets will become the focus of competition. As the first-tier cities continue to cool down, more and more car companies have begun to target the second and third-tier markets.
Due to the relatively underdeveloped economy of the second and third-tier auto market, the impact of the US “financial crisis†is smaller, and in recent years, the market demand for consumption has shown and rapid growth. In 2009, the second and third tier markets will become the focus of major auto manufacturers. Decide on its next brand direction and competitive landscape. At the same time, the original “big one†approach of automobile marketing will also be completely changed, and differentiated policies and measures will be formulated according to local markets. Whether regional marketing can be done in 2009 has become one of the key factors for manufacturers to win the future.
Fourth, the survival of the fittest accelerated, the auto industry restructuring and merger increased in 2009, as the market further cold, the merger and reorganization within the automotive industry will increase significantly, including not only domestic enterprises, mergers and acquisitions between domestic and foreign companies will have increase. This trend has begun to appear in the United States. In 2008, the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, the North American auto market suffered a sharp decline. The United States' top three auto companies GM, Chrysler and Ford are on the verge of bankruptcy, and the operation is under tremendous pressure. Chrysler has tried to merge the crisis and is actively seeking financial assistance from the US government. Domestic enterprises can make full use of this rare opportunity to actively participate in the mergers and acquisitions and reorganization of global automobile brands, use funds for brand, change technology, change management experience, learn from each other's strengths, and seize the rare development opportunities.
V. The development of new energy vehicle industrialization will be greatly accelerated. In the announcement of the No. 29 new car access announcement announced by the National Development and Reform Commission, a liberation brand hybrid car of FAW Group and Dongfeng Motor, Changan Automobile and Beiqi Futian 3 Hybrid buses, as well as the joint venture brand Shanghai Volkswagen Passat fuel cell vehicles and Shanghai GM's Buick hybrid vehicles, this is the new energy vehicle since the implementation of the "New Energy Vehicle Production Access Management Rules" on November 1, 2007. For the first time, it was concentrated on the list, indicating that China’s new energy vehicles have officially entered the forefront of industrialization. In addition, the electric vehicle industrialization project of BYD Auto, a self-owned brand, is also in full swing. It is foreseeable that the development of China's new energy vehicles will greatly accelerate in 2009. The historical law of the world's automobile development shows that every time the global automobile market is in great turmoil, new technologies will eventually stand out to replace the original technical standards, and new market leaders will be created. The speed of China's new energy vehicle industrialization will be accelerated. Conducive to grasp the new opportunities for this round of automobile market adjustment.
6. Changes in production and sales, new adjustments in the field of automobile circulation In recent years, China's auto market has developed rapidly, and the construction of national sales and service networks for various brands has gradually formed a scale. However, in the entire automobile production and sales segment, auto manufacturers are always in a dominant position. Status, dealers are in a passive subordinate position, dealers are completely under the control of manufacturers, and in 2009, under the new policy expectations, this relationship of production and sales inequality is expected to be alleviated.
In response to these problems, the Ministry of Commerce has now completed the revision of the "Automobile Brand Sales Management Measures", which is likely to be introduced during the year and will be introduced in 2009 at the latest. The revised draft will change “Automobile manufacturers can authorize auto dealers to develop and implement network planning†to “Automobile manufacturers can entrust auto dealers to develop and implement network planningâ€. The difference between authorization and entrustment indicates manufacturers and distributors. The relationship will change from subordinate to equality. The introduction of the new policy will greatly enhance the confidence of domestic auto dealers in the cyclical adjustment of the auto market, and the stable dealer team at the end of the industrial chain is conducive to the stability of the auto market, which is conducive to the development of car companies and the entire industry.
First, the overall growth rate will slow down. According to the domestic economic growth rate in 2009, the growth rate will decrease by 0.5%, and the automobile market growth amplification factor will be calculated as 5. In 2009, domestic automobile sales will increase by 5.5% compared with 2008, and the growth rate will decrease by 2.5 percentage points. Considering several other influencing factors and levying fuel tax, it is expected to increase by about 4%. The annual production and sales volume of automobiles is close to 10 million.
Second, the growth of commercial vehicles will be better than passenger cars, the most difficult for spare parts enterprises. From the spare parts market, 2009 will not only face the pressure of the decline of the domestic downstream vehicle market, but also bear the huge international market pressure. The auto parts industry has long been integrated with the international auto market, and the main markets are in developed countries such as Europe and the United States. Therefore, the impacts encountered are relatively straightforward and have a large decline.
From the perspective of the commercial vehicle market, the rapid decline in growth rate in the second half of 2008 was mainly due to the official implementation of the National Standards on July 1, and the impact of sales release in the first half of the year. This effect will last for up to one year, 2009 The market will resume normal operation in the second half of the year. In 2009, the state will increase the government's public investment to ensure the growth of domestic demand, thus driving the truck market. At the same time, in the case of “energy-saving and emission reduction†restricted passenger cars, it is possible to foresee the future market demand for passenger cars. Will maintain a more modest growth. In addition, a few years after the new rural construction policy was put forward, the micro-commercial vehicle market has started to start, and the market has grown rapidly. From the growth structure of various types of commercial vehicles in the past few months since September 2008, the micro-commercial vehicles are in commercial vehicles. The only model that keeps growing. In general, large passengers, heavy trucks and micro-cars in commercial vehicles will be able to withstand the macroeconomic downturn and export slowdown to a certain extent, driven by factors such as the implementation of public transportation systems and the construction of new rural infrastructure. Impact.
Judging from the passenger car market, the income growth of residents has dropped significantly and the impact of passenger car restrictions on the inevitable traffic, as well as the upcoming “fuel taxâ€, the growth of the private car market in 2009 is very large. In comparison, the growth of the passenger car market in 2009 will be relatively lagging behind commercial vehicles.
The third, second and third-tier markets will become the focus of competition. As the first-tier cities continue to cool down, more and more car companies have begun to target the second and third-tier markets.
Due to the relatively underdeveloped economy of the second and third-tier auto market, the impact of the US “financial crisis†is smaller, and in recent years, the market demand for consumption has shown and rapid growth. In 2009, the second and third tier markets will become the focus of major auto manufacturers. Decide on its next brand direction and competitive landscape. At the same time, the original “big one†approach of automobile marketing will also be completely changed, and differentiated policies and measures will be formulated according to local markets. Whether regional marketing can be done in 2009 has become one of the key factors for manufacturers to win the future.
Fourth, the survival of the fittest accelerated, the auto industry restructuring and merger increased in 2009, as the market further cold, the merger and reorganization within the automotive industry will increase significantly, including not only domestic enterprises, mergers and acquisitions between domestic and foreign companies will have increase. This trend has begun to appear in the United States. In 2008, the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, the North American auto market suffered a sharp decline. The United States' top three auto companies GM, Chrysler and Ford are on the verge of bankruptcy, and the operation is under tremendous pressure. Chrysler has tried to merge the crisis and is actively seeking financial assistance from the US government. Domestic enterprises can make full use of this rare opportunity to actively participate in the mergers and acquisitions and reorganization of global automobile brands, use funds for brand, change technology, change management experience, learn from each other's strengths, and seize the rare development opportunities.
V. The development of new energy vehicle industrialization will be greatly accelerated. In the announcement of the No. 29 new car access announcement announced by the National Development and Reform Commission, a liberation brand hybrid car of FAW Group and Dongfeng Motor, Changan Automobile and Beiqi Futian 3 Hybrid buses, as well as the joint venture brand Shanghai Volkswagen Passat fuel cell vehicles and Shanghai GM's Buick hybrid vehicles, this is the new energy vehicle since the implementation of the "New Energy Vehicle Production Access Management Rules" on November 1, 2007. For the first time, it was concentrated on the list, indicating that China’s new energy vehicles have officially entered the forefront of industrialization. In addition, the electric vehicle industrialization project of BYD Auto, a self-owned brand, is also in full swing. It is foreseeable that the development of China's new energy vehicles will greatly accelerate in 2009. The historical law of the world's automobile development shows that every time the global automobile market is in great turmoil, new technologies will eventually stand out to replace the original technical standards, and new market leaders will be created. The speed of China's new energy vehicle industrialization will be accelerated. Conducive to grasp the new opportunities for this round of automobile market adjustment.
6. Changes in production and sales, new adjustments in the field of automobile circulation In recent years, China's auto market has developed rapidly, and the construction of national sales and service networks for various brands has gradually formed a scale. However, in the entire automobile production and sales segment, auto manufacturers are always in a dominant position. Status, dealers are in a passive subordinate position, dealers are completely under the control of manufacturers, and in 2009, under the new policy expectations, this relationship of production and sales inequality is expected to be alleviated.
In response to these problems, the Ministry of Commerce has now completed the revision of the "Automobile Brand Sales Management Measures", which is likely to be introduced during the year and will be introduced in 2009 at the latest. The revised draft will change “Automobile manufacturers can authorize auto dealers to develop and implement network planning†to “Automobile manufacturers can entrust auto dealers to develop and implement network planningâ€. The difference between authorization and entrustment indicates manufacturers and distributors. The relationship will change from subordinate to equality. The introduction of the new policy will greatly enhance the confidence of domestic auto dealers in the cyclical adjustment of the auto market, and the stable dealer team at the end of the industrial chain is conducive to the stability of the auto market, which is conducive to the development of car companies and the entire industry.
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