Abstract Core Tip: On the whole, next week, foreign copper and copper solo dance, non-agricultural employment data, QE and debt ceiling will be the target of market speculation; in the absence of Chinese traders to participate, the price will fluctuate. It is expected that the next week's copper support level is $7,150, the pressure...
Core Tip: On the whole, next week, foreign copper and copper solo dance, non-agricultural employment data, QE and debt ceiling will be the target of market speculation; in the absence of Chinese traders to participate, the price will fluctuate. Next week, the copper support level is 7150 US dollars, the pressure is 7350 US dollars; relative to the Shanghai copper operating range of 5.15-53,000; spot copper 5.17-5.30 million; scrap copper 4.7-49 million. First, the electrolytic copper market
This week, the price of copper changed to a narrow range before the Mid-Autumn Festival, and the volatility during the trading day increased significantly. On the one hand, due to the trend of copper during the holiday period, on the other hand, the National Day holiday is still full of uncertainties in the market. The specific data of the Fubao Copper Research Group are as follows:
It can be seen from Table 1 that copper prices in this week showed two high and low middle prices, and the premium has changed a lot. This is also a manifestation of the will of market traders. During the Mid-Autumn Festival, copper prices in the outer disk rose sharply, but the reopening of the copper price after the holiday eased the market. The spot copper price rose by 530 yuan/ton. However, due to the high cost of goods holders and the increase in import losses (see the chart below), the supplier's willingness to resell is obvious, and the copper premium is higher. In the second half of the year, copper prices in the second half of the year were lower. The Shanghai market traders competed to sell goods. The copper premiums and discounts fell to the level of Pingshui, and some even posted water. It is not difficult to see the purpose of the traders to dump goods. First, the National Day is coming soon, but downstream purchases are not prosperous, and the holders are interested in price reduction promotions. Second, before the Mid-Autumn Festival, the price of copper was lower, and some traders lost their shipments. However, the price was high and it was difficult to replenish the goods. The selling price dragged down or dragged down the price of copper. Unexpectedly, the copper market futures and spot market differentiation, the futures market before the National Day holiday fell, the copper price was pushed higher. However, the spot transaction was all the way down due to the tight capital at the end of the month. The downstream replenishment buying was maintained for two days, and the transaction was sluggish in the next few days.
In addition, due to the availability of the Tianjin market, traders offer rational prices relative to Shanghai traders. After Tianjin entered September, the supply of copper increased significantly, and cloud copper was the most common. And this part of the copper price flows into Tianjin below 52,000, so the cost of holding goods is relatively low, so the current price is still profitable. But it is also suffering from the break of the downstream capital chain, and the volume has not been amplified. The Fubao Copper Research Group believes that although the cable industry in the main domestic copper consumption sector is still weak in demand, many of the planned projects are required to be completed in the fourth quarter. It is expected that China's copper consumption will be reopened after the National Day.
Second, the recycled copper market
1. Electrolytic copper and bright lines
This week, scrap copper prices fluctuated widely, and overall there was still a slight increase, and the market transactions were relatively good. Foshan's bright line averaged 48,500 this week, slightly higher than the price before the Mid-Autumn Festival. From the figure, the scrap copper price is closer to the previous high point, so the upward pressure is greater. Although it is close to the stage high point, from the point of view of the refined price difference, the current scrap market is relatively scarce, and the fare increase is more demanded, thus maintaining the narrowing of the refined price.
The scrap copper price fluctuated slightly this week, but it still maintained a rebound and the market performance was relatively positive. From the macro news point of view, the Fed does not withdraw from QE for the time being, and the Chinese PMI data is still relatively optimistic. It can be said that it is good news. But what we should pay more attention to is that, under such favorable conditions, the copper price reaction can be said to be disappointing. The National Day holiday is approaching, the country is about to close, and US data, especially non-agricultural employment, will become the main theme.
In the spot market of scrap copper, the transaction was relatively good this week. Due to the tight supply, the price difference of fine waste has narrowed. In order to avoid risks, some merchants have a good willingness to ship, and the overall transaction performance is more optimistic. We believe that this good situation is difficult to maintain in the long run, and the risk of copper prices still exists. Next week's domestic data or favorable copper prices, we recommend that scrap copper customers take the opportunity to reduce inventory and maintain low inventory to spend the holidays.
2, September order growth can not cover the cable industry "inside virtual"
According to this week's tracking and investigation of cable companies in Zhejiang, a total of 43 companies were sampled. Among them, the annual output of 5 large-scale enterprises (annual output of 10,000 tons or more) is 26,400 tons; the average annual output of 13 medium-sized enterprises (1000-10000 tons per year) is 3341.5 tons; (the annual output of 1,000 tons or less) is 25 small enterprises. The average annual output is 359.44 tons.
In terms of operating rate: the total average operating rate in September was 64.32%, a significant increase of 5.31 percentage points compared with 59.01% in the previous month (August). The merchants reflected that during the golden period of September, the upward trend was presented, but only the “golden jade was ruinedâ€, the surface factory started to recover, and the downstream market was still in the “inner virtual†state, because the delays in payment and demand have not changed.
Third, the downstream market analysis
This week, Zhejiang Jinlong Hpb58-3A brass rod ex-factory price has moved up slightly. After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the Fed maintained its loosening strength, and the copper price was boosted, boosting the price of the manufacturers. As the copper price rallied, the price of copper rods was lowered accordingly, which basically showed a U-shaped trend consistent with copper fluctuations. At present, the price of Hpb58-3A returns to 36,700 yuan/ton.
It is understood that the overall turnover of copper enterprises in September was flat. Although it was in the peak season, the copper business did not meet expectations and the demand improved slightly. The operating rate of the chain rose slightly, up 2.7 percentage points. However, although some enterprises' orders have increased, the overall profit is generally good, and the phenomenon of shrinking profits is more common. A copper rod manufacturer in Guangdong said that the price competition in the ordinary process copper rod market is fierce, and the price of the business is relatively chaotic, while the profit of high-tech products is relatively considerable. The reasons for the lack of prosperity in the peak season are as follows: 1. The payment period is prolonged, the funds are short, and the market is unstable. 3. The demand recovery signal is not clear, and the replenishment operation is slowing down.
According to the investigation of downstream cable companies by Fubao Copper Research Group, the average operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces with concentrated cable production in September was 64.32%, which was more than 5 percentage points higher than that of August 59.01%. Regained above 80%. Stepping into the golden period of September, although the upward trend is expected, it is worth noting that although the surface starts to heat up, the actual downstream is still in the “inner virtual†state, and the payment and market demand are essentially out of fatigue. In the later period, cable enterprise operations still have problems such as overcapacity and vicious competition, and industrial regulation still takes a long time.
Fourth, futures market analysis and forecast
This week, the copper price rebounded at the bottom and gained support from the moving average. The trend is still relatively strong, but the upward pressure is also large, as shown in the following figure:
On the macro level, the US economic data is mixed, suggesting that the recovery momentum has not reached the “strong†level; the debt ceiling pressure will be ushered in October, and at this time the political “resolute†uncompromising policy has raised market concerns, but It does not affect the final result at all - the achievement of a peaceful settlement of the debt problem will be similar to the last one. It continues to maintain an optimistic judgment on the US economy. From the perspective of debt, Greece and Spain have the possibility of continuing to need assistance. Italy’s political risk will drag down economic growth, which poses a greater threat to the recovery of the euro zone. The European Central Bank has repeatedly suggested that there are enough tools to deal with the economic form, and the currency Policies also have room for continued quantitative easing. These “comfort†market actions do play a positive role, but substantial changes require accurate data. China's economic data overall preferences, regain market confidence, and with the pace of reform and opening up, China's demand will continue to win the world's attention, we still maintain the judgment that the global economic situation continues to improve, next week into China's National Day holiday, abroad There are relatively few risk events and market changes or stabilization.
According to the latest news, in 2014, China's refined copper end users may have to pay US$123 per ton of copper imports, up 45% from US$85 in 2013; Europe's largest copper smelter Aurubis also said that it will face the European market in 2014. The copper contract premium was set at $105 per ton, which is $19 higher than in 2013. Foreign trade contract premiums are required for consumers to pay higher than LME copper. From the perspective of supply and demand, the rise in premiums reflects the optimistic view of the global economic recovery in 2014 and the copper demand. From the enterprise level, European and Japanese smelters are mostly copper export enterprises. If TC/RC rises and the premium rises, it will bring More profits, and as the largest copper importer - China's enterprises, will be in an unfavorable position; from the cost point of view, crew, transportation and other costs are rising, the increase in premium also reflects the increase in costs to varying degrees; From the spot to shore premium trend, the world's major regions, the United States, Europe, China, Singapore, copper and water in 2013 have shown an upward trend, the current China's bonded warehouse copper premium of 180 US dollars, Europe's premium is around 120 US dollars, are higher than smelting The expected price released by the factory will provide support for the negotiations of the Yangtze Association's rising water.
On the technical side, copper prices once again break through the 20-average pressure, and the technical upward trend will be maintained; and from a graphical point of view, copper prices are tending to be in the triangle convergence interval. Historical experience shows that price fluctuations will be relatively small in the next one to two weeks, long and short The two sides will decide who is the king; global copper inventories are slowly declining, and there is news that China will once again accelerate copper imports after the 11th, in which copper will flow into bonded warehouses, most of which will enter China's downstream.
In summary, next week, foreign copper and copper solo dance, non-agricultural employment data, QE and debt ceiling will be the target of market speculation; in the absence of Chinese traders to participate, the price will fluctuate. Next week, the copper support level is 7150 US dollars, the pressure is 7350 US dollars; relative to the Shanghai copper operating range of 5.15-53,000; spot copper 5.17-5.30 million; scrap copper 4.7-49 million.
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Retractable weight tape measure is made of ABS case, PVC coated fiberglass tape, and metal loop.
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2. The case diameter is 6cm and the thickness is 2cm.The tape length is 250cm 14mm in width.
For soft weight tape measure: total length of this tape measure is 250cm and 2.5cm wide.
About Tpaeline
For Retractable weight tape measure:
The tape is 250cm on one side, for the back side, there are two charts
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About Language
We have 2 language versions:
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It is suitable for measuring dead pig, and living cattle. For example European milking breeds, cross breeds and zebu.
About Usage
Step 1. Measure the pig or cattle's heart girth in centimeter, just behind the front legs.
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