Copper prices may continue to be weak due to China’s weak economy

On the 21st, Shanghai copper 50640-50780 yuan / ton, the average price of 50710 yuan / ton, down 760 yuan / ton, the spot rose 100-240 yuan / ton, the market bearish after the market, the transaction was light.

In other markets, the price of electrolytic copper in the northeast market was 51,000-51200 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton. The market willing to ship in general, the procurement demand is general, the transaction is slightly lighter; the electrolytic copper price in North China market is 50800-51000 yuan/ton, downstream The procurement demand of processing enterprises is basically no, the transaction is light; the price of electrolytic copper in the western market is 50850-51050 yuan/ton, the price is slightly down, the demand for procurement is generally good, and the transaction is general; the price of electrolytic copper in South China market is 50850-51050 yuan/ton, downstream procurement The willingness is poor and the transaction is light.

In the copper market, today's electrolytic copper spot fell sharply, and the market took the goods to a low point. Shanghai T2 copper plate 1.0 manufacturers offer 58,000 yuan / ton, down 500 yuan / ton, downstream procurement demand in general, the transaction is general; Luoyang T2 copper belt 1.0 manufacturers offer 58100 yuan / ton, the price fell 400 yuan / ton, the general willingness to ship, Traders get poor goods, the transaction is general; the mainstream transaction price of T2φ4-φ5*0.5-1 copper tube in Yantai, Shandong is about 55,600 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of T2φ4-φ5*0.5-1 copper tube in Qingdao is 56600 yuan. / ton or so, there is no sign of stocking in the downstream, basically based on the demand for goods, the transaction is general.

Shanghai copper continued its decline, and the Shanghai-London ratio continued to be repaired. The imported copper supply brands were diversified and the supply was sufficient. The domestic copper was forced to lower the premium shipments. The copper premiums all the way down, the middlemen wait and see, and the downstream receives the goods on demand. The market outlook is pessimistic and reproduces the atmosphere of oversupply. HSBC China's manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down from last month's 49.2, to a nine-month low; the output index was 48.8, significantly lower than last month's 50.7. The HSBC manufacturing PMI index fell to an initial value in June. A 9-month low indicates weak manufacturing. In June, the initial value of HSBC China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2, which was lower than market expectations. It was located under the glory line for two consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing industry has shrunk, which is larger than last month. On the one hand, it reflects the changes in the laws governing the operation of the real economy. In the first quarter of this year, the total amount of social financing increased rapidly, but the economic operation was weaker than seasonal, indicating that the relationship between the relatively stable financing growth rate and economic growth in the previous period has been undermined by the growth model under the new normal. Although it does not rule out the effects of cold weather and bird flu, my color network tends to believe that the nature of the current weak economic data is not due to the delay of event factors, but the debt leverage is too high, the financing is multi-purpose. Borrowing new and old, not for expansion. On the other hand, it suggests that there may be destocking pressure in the mid-view industry. From the latest mid-view data, power generation and coal consumption data have fallen, and the use of excavators has also deteriorated. Considering that many mid-view industry stocks are currently at a high level, the price of bulk commodities such as copper and aluminum has been adjusted drastically. This may lead to the phenomenon of active destocking. Looking ahead, due to weak prices, inventory pressures and performance pressures in the second quarter were greater.

The domestic economy as a whole is weak and there is no strong copper price support. The QE exit gradually approached and the price of risky assets was suppressed. The Chinese economy is still weak. Copper prices may continue to be weak.

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