The steel industry showed five distinct characteristics in the first half of the year.

The data shows that in the first half of the year, the new crude steel output in the country was 3.45 times of the annual backward production capacity of the steel industry, which was formulated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. There were almost no active production reduction enterprises. In the first half of the year, 60% of the new production was from large and medium-sized enterprises. steel industry.

According to the data of the Raw Materials Division of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the cumulative production of crude steel in the country from January to June was 390 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, and the growth rate was 5.6 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. In the first six months, the average daily output of crude steel was 2.154 million tons, equivalent to an annual output of 786 million tons of crude steel. Among them, the average daily output in February reached the highest level of 2.208 million tons.

In terms of provinces and regions, from January to June, crude steel output in Hebei and Jiangsu provinces increased by 6.8% and 13.2% respectively, and the total new output of the two provinces accounted for 42.4% of the national total. In addition, Shanxi, Liaoning, Henan and Yunnan provinces also increased production by more than 1 million tons. In terms of types of enterprises, the crude steel output of key large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises increased by 5.5% year-on-year from January to June. Although this is lower than the national average growth rate, 60% of new production is from key large and medium-sized steel enterprises.

Comparing the first batch of 2013 steelmaking elimination backward production capacity companies released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and related data, Luo Baihui, chief analyst of Jinmo Steel Network, said that it is difficult to be optimistic about the overcapacity solution in the steel industry. The new situation and new features of the steel industry in the first half of the year also include the continued expansion of national steel production capacity. In addition, the industry's debt ratio is high, and the risk of capital chain breakage increases. From January to May, the total assets of large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises totaled 4.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%; the total liabilities were 3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%; the asset-liability ratio was 69.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points. Difficulties in financing and high financing costs are common problems encountered by steel companies in recent years.

It is worth noting that in the first half of the year, the contradiction between supply and demand in the steel market has intensified, and the characteristics of enterprises that have no intention of reducing production are also obvious. On the one hand, steel prices continue to fall, enterprises' production and operation are difficult, and even losses, on the other hand, the rapid release of production capacity, the company's willingness to cut production is insufficient. From the perspective of the whole industry, there are almost no enterprises that actively reduce production, and the continuous increase in production capacity has caused the steel market to continue to slump.

New situation and new features of the steel industry

(1) National steel production capacity continues to expand

In the first half of the year, the national crude steel output was 389.87 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, and the growth rate accelerated by 5.6 percentage points year-on-year; the steel output was 516.96 million tons, an increase of 10.2%, an acceleration of 4.1 percentage points. The output of coke was 236.59 million tons, an increase of 7.4%, an acceleration of 1 percentage point. The output of ferroalloys was 17.14 million tons, an increase of 15.2%, an acceleration of 5.9 percentage points. Billet imports were 300,000 tons, an increase of 53.5%. Steel exports were 30.69 million tons, up 12.8%; imports were 6.83 million tons, down 1.8%. The import of iron ore was 384.29 million tons, an increase of 5.1%. The export of coke was 1.51 million tons, an increase of 1.6 times.

From January to May, steel investment in the top five provinces of Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Shanxi and other steel production capacity accounted for 48% of the national total. In addition to Shanxi, investment in the other four provinces remained large, with Shandong increasing by 57%. According to the survey of Mysteel website, in the first quarter of this year, a total of 31 blast furnaces were under construction or completed and put into operation, with a total volume of 40,300 cubic meters and a designed production capacity of 38 million tons.

(II) The industry's debt ratio is high, and the risk of capital chain breakage rises

From January to May, the total assets of large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises totaled 4.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%; the total liabilities were 3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%; the asset-liability ratio was 69.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points. Difficulties in financing and high financing costs are common problems encountered by steel companies in recent years. On June 19, 2013, the State Council executive meeting decided to refrain from providing new credit for illegal construction projects in industries with severe overcapacity. At present, the bank's cash flow is insufficient, the credit scale is tightened, and the difficulty of obtaining bank loans by seamlessly controlling national standards has further increased. The direct financing costs of short-term financing bills and medium-term notes have risen sharply. Steel enterprises everywhere have generally reported that the capital chain is tightly stretched, and some enterprises have already stopped production due to the break of the capital chain.

(3) The environmental protection pressure of iron and steel enterprises is further increased

The steel industry is one of the key industries for air pollution control. The new standards for pollutant discharge in the steel industry have significantly tightened emission limits for particulate matter and sulphur dioxide, and set stricter limits for water and atmospheric pollutants in environmentally sensitive areas. Luo Baihui, chief analyst of Jinmo Steel Network, said that at present, a considerable number of steel companies cannot meet the new environmental protection standards. Enterprises still need to increase environmental protection investment, and production and operation costs are further rising. Some urban steel mills are also facing increasingly pressing environmental relocation pressures.

(4) The contradiction between supply and demand in the steel market has intensified, and enterprises have no intention to reduce production.

At present, the supply and demand of the steel industry market is unbalanced. On the one hand, steel prices continue to fall, enterprises' production and operation are difficult, and even losses, on the other hand, the rapid release of production capacity, the company's willingness to cut production is insufficient. The reason is that enterprises are mainly worried about the loss of market share, preventing the risk of banks from suspending loans, pressure from local growth, and balancing the marginal benefits of enterprises. From the perspective of the whole industry, there are almost no enterprises that actively reduce production, and the continuous increase in production capacity has caused the steel market to continue to slump.

( V) The profit growth of steel enterprise profit growth

In the first five months, the building materials industry realized a profit of 132.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%. Among them, the cement manufacturing industry's profit was 15.28 billion yuan, an increase of 1%; the flat glass industry profit was 1.04 billion yuan, a net loss of 420 million yuan in the same period last year.

Steel prices continue to fall. In June, the domestic market steel price composite index averaged 99.15, down 4.45 points from the previous month and down 16.72 points year-on-year. The average price of 6.5mm high wire, 20mm medium plate and 1.0mm cold rolled coil was 3446 yuan/ton, 3607 yuan/ton and 4520 yuan/ton respectively, down 154 yuan/ton, 132 yuan/ton and 140 yuan from last month. / ton, the decline was 4.3%, 3.5% and 3%, down 16.9%, 13.3% and 8.4%.

In the first five months, the steel industry realized a profit of 62.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%. Among them, the profit of ferrous metal mining and dressing industry was 29.57 billion yuan, up by 7.8%; the profit of iron and steel smelting and processing industry was 26.08 billion yuan, up 43.1%.

In the first half of the year, the output of ten non-ferrous metals in the country was 19.47 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and the growth rate accelerated by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year. The output of electrolytic aluminum was 10.58 million tons, an increase of 7.9%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points; the output of copper increased by 12.9%, an acceleration of 2.6 percentage points; the output of lead increased by 12.5%, an acceleration of 3.6 percentage points; the output of zinc increased by 9.2%, a decrease of 6.2% in the same period of last year. . Alumina production increased by 10%, accelerating by 0.3 percentage points.

The price of major non-ferrous metals has rebounded. In June, the average price of copper, electrolytic aluminum, lead and zinc futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 53227 yuan/ton, 14725 yuan/ton, 13896 yuan/ton and 14535 yuan/ton, respectively, up 2.6% and 1.5 respectively from the previous month. %, 1.1% and 0.8%, down 4%, 7.7%, 8.8% and 1.6%.

In the first five months, the non-ferrous metals industry realized a profit of 65.17 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year. Among them, the profit of non-ferrous metal mining and dressing industry was 25.38 billion yuan, down 4.4%; the profit of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 39.79 billion yuan, down 8.8%.

The tax analysis report released by the Ministry of Finance on July 29 showed that while the income growth rate of the main tax category generally declined, the tax revenue of the real estate transaction segment increased rapidly; the deed tax increased by 39.8% year-on-year, which was 49.7 faster than the same period last year. Percentage points; the policy of “20% tax on second-hand housing transfers”, although only implemented for one quarter, also boosted the rapid growth of personal income tax.

However, due to the decline in economic growth, one of the reasons for the decline in tax revenue in the first half of the year was the decline in domestic economic growth. Among them, industrial enterprises such as steel and coal were hit hard, and corporate income tax in the coal industry fell by 41.2% year-on-year.

Steel enterprise income tax sharply reduced by 40%

The tax base for value-added tax is roughly equivalent to industrial added value and commercial added value. The data shows that the industrial added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.4% in the first five months, down by 1.3 percentage points over the same period of last year. In the same period, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 12.6%, down 1.9 percentage points over the same period last year.

Another data that can observe business activity is corporate income tax. In the first six months, the income from corporate income tax reached 1,496.638 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, which was 3.1 percentage points lower than the growth rate of the previous year. The corporate income tax of steel billet steel, coal and non-ferrous metals decreased by 41.2%, 26.4% and 24.2% respectively, which was 19.8, 63.3 and 38.8 percentage points lower than the same period of last year.

The tax base of corporate income tax is the total profit of the enterprise. Luo Baihui believes that the main reason for the decline in corporate income tax revenue growth is that some industrial enterprises have a large decline in profits. In particular, the total profit of coal mining and washing industry decreased by 43.9%, and the profits of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry and non-ferrous metal mining and mining industry decreased by 8.8% and 4.4% respectively. According to reports, the central high-level officials have clearly determined that they will resolutely suppress and digest severe excess capacity in the future, and eliminate the backward production capacity to make the advanced production capacity and effective production capacity better. However, after inspecting the Caofeidian steel mill, the central high-level officials also said that the excess capacity is not necessarily backward. The 5,000-cubic-meter blast furnace is absolutely world-class, but the under-employment is insufficient, mainly because the market is limited, and some backward production capacity is required to be crushed. Advanced and competitive production capacity can be released, while suppressing severe overcapacity and helping to improve blind expansion.

Consistent with the central government, the fiscal and taxation authorities also said this month that they will deepen the reform of the fiscal and taxation system and increase restrictions or penalties for industries, enterprises and products with high energy consumption, high pollution and low resource utilization. At the beginning of the fifth round of the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue, Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said that China will not launch a large-scale fiscal stimulus policy, but it will adjust its structure.

During the fifth round of the special round of the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue on Energy Security, Mr. Lou said that the resource tax reform will be comprehensively promoted in the future. The next step will be to gradually introduce the resources such as coal into the ad valorem. Appropriately increase the level of tax burden. In addition, it will support the market-oriented reform of energy prices and the development of new and renewable energy sources.

Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, said in the latest research report that steel and cement have risen sharply since July, indicating that infrastructure and real estate construction remain stable and have not declined with the correction of production.

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