Autumn is the biggest market opportunity for dealers. The key to dealer profitability is at this time. Most manufacturers should issue preferential policies in time, but so far, most manufacturers have no intention to introduce policies. The fertilizer market is all the way up. The dealer is stunned and overwhelmed. Is it continuing to wait for the manufacturer’s policy or decisive attack? If you continue to wait, what if the manufacturer does not issue a policy? If you don’t pay for the stock now, what should I do if I wait for the price to go up?
The key to the distribution of fertilizer is the in-depth analysis of the current fertilizer market and confidence in the market outlook.
Due to the increase in raw material prices, fertilizer prices have been rising and operating at a high level since the second quarter of 2011. At present, natural gas and coal prices are at a high level, and the supply of international sulfur is tight. To a certain extent, the prices of diammonium and compound fertilizers will also move. High position. The large-scale potash fertilizer has been signed, the arrival price is about RMB 3,100 per ton, and the management fees of the port are basically 3,400 yuan, which is higher than the domestic potash sales price. Therefore, the possibility of price reduction in the short-term is basically No.
Resource products determine the long-term upward trend of fertilizer prices. The three major fertilizer varieties are nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, and their raw materials have strong resources. The main raw material of 80% urea production enterprises in China is coal or natural gas, and then ammonia is synthesized to produce urea. The main raw materials of phosphate fertilizer are phosphate rock and sulfur. China protects and restricts the export of phosphate rock as a resource product. Sulfur is mostly The refinery recycles production, and the price is greatly affected by the price of crude oil; the potassium salt is extremely uneven due to the extremely uneven distribution and the monopoly of the potash fertilizer enterprise, and the resource is the most prominent. Resource products have the characteristics of being difficult to be market-priced, such as demand rigidity, scarcity, and increasing marginal mining costs. The scarcity of natural resources is becoming more and more prominent, as well as the development of modern property rights market and capital market. Resource products exclude short-term price fluctuations. In the long run, prices are rising. Under the transmission of price mechanism, the price increase will give fertilizers. The price brings pressure.
Transport is tight. Relying on railway transportation fertilizer will be tense, especially to the northeast market. The northwest region, the Ministry of Railways will focus on ensuring the outbound transportation of potassium fertilizer, urea, diammonium and compound fertilizer will be restricted, so that it will be applied to fertilizers. Outgoing has caused a lot of impact, especially the difficulty of shipping across provinces will increase. In the short term, there may be a situation in which fertilizers are snapped up and money is not available. The bottleneck in transportation may boost a new round of price increases.
In short, in the market competition, fertilizer distributors only accurately grasp the changes in market conditions, understand the status quo of market development, select products with good development prospects, and innovate for the sales model of the local market, focusing on the interests of customers and doing good services. Can become a leader in the market. Dealers must rationally look at the market outlook, analyze the status quo, and make the right choice.
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