Looking at the perspective of China's stock market abrasives and abrasives enterprises

Abstract Recently, the domestic SSE broke through 4,000 points, and the stock form is very good. However, the public generally believes that the phenomenon of “declining economic fundamentals and rising stocks” is unreasonable. Many people only know one-way thinking, so there is always someone holding "the stock market is the economic sunny...
Recently, the domestic SSE broke through 4,000 points, and the stock form is very good. However, the public generally believes that the phenomenon of “declining economic fundamentals and rising stocks” is unreasonable. Many people only know one-way thinking, so there is always a saying that "the stock market is a barometer of the economy", from more than 2,000 points to more than 4,000 points. In fact, although this sentence is generally not wrong, most people ignore another fact: the stock market has a back-feeding effect on the real economy .

To understand the significance of this round of bull market to the Chinese economy, we must look at the following words in tandem: SMEs, financing, and registration .

SMEs contribute 60% of China's GDP, 50% of tax revenue and 80% of urban employment. They are undoubtedly the most important promoters of the Chinese economy. But for a long time, SMEs have not received the respect they deserve in many respects. State-owned enterprises with inefficient central enterprises have occupied a large number of preferential policies and funds, but they have not produced the rewards they deserve. State-owned enterprises of central enterprises have only focused on scale growth and not on efficiency growth for many years, and they have been criticized for a long time. The inclination of policy, or the attention of local governments, is second. The most deadly thing is that banks often play the role of robbing the poor and helping the small and medium-sized enterprises to survive the last straw. (People who have done business in this business will understand that when the economy is good in the past few years, the bank will ask you to eat for three days, crying and crying to borrow money to grow and develop. Now the economy is going, The bank suddenly changed its face, various kinds of contraction credits, and how many small businesses were so alive to be killed in one go.

Regardless of how Premier Li Keqiang’s three-and-a-half-year appeals at various conferences and conferences, how to call for the liberalization of credit support for small and micro enterprises, the bank’s first-level assessment mechanism is doomed to lend only to large state-owned enterprises with policy advantages and political status. (After all, there is a national credit behind it). From the top four to the city, it is impossible to lend a lot of money to companies and industries that do not see profit prospects for the time being. This is not to blame the bank. From the perspective of the bank's own pursuit of sound management, this is understandable.

Therefore, it can be seen that it is difficult to have sufficient water flow from the financing channel (ie, indirect financing) provided by banks to small and medium-sized enterprises. What should we do? The leadership has also said many times that it is impossible to carry out a large-scale stimulus plan. Is it waiting for the most important engine of the Chinese economy to stall? Don't worry, there is another way: direct financing (ie stock market).

The purpose of this round of bull market is to guide private capital to fully solve the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises, thus promoting the economic transformation.

The state first used public opinion, policies and other means to speculate in the stock market, so that the people can re-recognize the profitability of the stock market. After that, we took the opportunity to launch a registration system to allow a large number of SMEs that are not yet profitable or have a good profit level to go public. The money-making effect brought by the previous bull market can enable the people to continue to invest heavily in the stocks of these enterprises, thus successfully draining the deposits of ordinary people into funds to support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, and ultimately promote the successful transformation of the economy.

Many people do not understand why the state promotes the registration system, and does not understand why companies whose profits are not up to standard can also enter the capital market. In fact, the introduction of the registration system is precisely to make small and medium-sized enterprises that have no way to get the favor of banks, and have the opportunity to get the favor of private capital (that is, the people pay for your stock).

Then the question is coming. Why do ordinary people buy your stock? Three words: (think) can make money . (Really three words...) Looking at the character of the people in the Great Heaven, whether it is aunt crazy gold, or the whole group to buy a house, the bottom line is: (think) can make money .

So how do you make them think they can make money? The stock market has been so crowded before, how can they get back? In fact, the answer is simpler, two words: bull market.

The forgottenness of the masses is very big. People who lost money in the stock market now see others starting to make money in the stock market or start to return to themselves. They will be able to forget the pain immediately and start to inquire about each day. Insider news. Recalling, is there a time when people often talk about the stock market? Is there a lot more friends in the circle of friends? Are strangers on the neighboring table in the restaurant starting to brag about how many thousands of dollars they earned?

There is nothing new under the sun.

Judging from the original timetable for the registration system, the management hopes that the stock market will be a slow-moving cow, which will help to slowly push SMEs into the arms of investors. However, judging from the gambling of the Chinese people, the soaring balance of "two integrations" has already reflected the gambling of the Chinese people. In China, it is destined to have only "barbarians", it is difficult to have slow cattle, which is why Premier Li Keqiang has always stressed To speed up the introduction of the registration system - the registration system will not catch up with the pace of the bull market, the previous efforts can only be abandoned.

Also, why is the GEM index now high? Many of the answers simply attributed it to "a lot of silly people" and "aunt's admission", which is actually a lazy behavior. It is undeniable that there are a lot of companies with high valuations in the GEM. They use the continuous mergers and acquisitions to beautify their performances, or they can attract newcomers to “take in” through high delivery, and buy such a company. The final probability of a final outcome is a feather. But from a more macro perspective, the quality companies in the GEM represent the transformation direction of the Chinese economy. I don’t see the Nasdaq bubble period of that year. Although it was a chicken feather after the rupture, it was in the midst of the magnificent bull market that there were great companies like google, yahoo, amazon, etc. )). Imagine if a company like Google would die halfway because it didn't get the favor of the capital market. How big is the world today?

In short, if the stock market is good, the money in the pockets of ordinary people may flow into the stock market, and private capital will have the incentive to flow into the primary market, giving support to the startup company, thereby feeding back the real economy and strongly promoting the transformation of China's economy. On the other hand, if the stock market stalls, the people's money can only continue to exist in the bank, and China's savings rate will remain high, so the real economy is likely to move toward a terrible situation of large-scale misfiring.

Therefore, only a deep understanding of the significance of this round of bull market in the guidance of capital allocation can understand why the so-called "bubble theory" and "pool theory" are nothing more than wrong old talks, or excessively entangled in the details. Drilling the horns, I did not see the essence of the problem at all.

When everyone has reached a certain stubborn view on a certain thing, China's abrasives industry enterprises may wish to stand higher, or look at China's current stock market from another angle, and may find different perspectives and more. Opportunity.

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