On September 14, the polysilicon plate soared across the board.
Sichuan Investment Energy (600674, closing price of 16.70 yuan), Leshan Electric (600644, closing price of 15.63 yuan), Aerospace (600151, closing price of 14.80 yuan) and other daily limit, even the polysilicon business has transferred to the controlling shareholder Tongwei shares It was also 5% in intraday trading. In 2007 and 2008, the market grandness of A-shares' enthusiasm for polycrystalline stocks seemed to reappear yesterday.
"Daily Economic News" learned that the latest domestic polysilicon spot price rose by 10% in the most recent week. However, as in the previous two interviews with reporters, industry researchers still stressed that the spot price soared on the performance of polysilicon companies is not obvious.
Spot prices accelerated
The most talked about photovoltaic industry's most recent talk is no more than polysilicon prices.
On August 28th, "Daily Economic News" reported that the domestic polysilicon spot market price had soared. After the end of 2008, the polysilicon spot market price, which has been oscillating for around 400,000 yuan per ton for a long time, has broken the stalemate that lasted for nearly two years since the end of July this year, and it has risen for the first time since the financial crisis. By mid-August, the spot price of polysilicon in the domestic market had risen from the previous 400,000 yuan/ton, up to 440,000 yuan/ton to 460,000 yuan/ton, with a half-month increase of about 10%.
From the interview with reporters at that time, the industry believed that this was a normal result after the rapid improvement in global PV market demand this year; due to the gap between supply and demand, raw material plants contracted outsourcing capacity, the spot price of polysilicon will further increase, and the rally is expected to continue until the end of this year. Two weeks later, on August 27th, the reporter learned that the domestic spot price had exceeded 500,000 yuan/ton during the week, and the mainstream price was at 48.5 to 50.5 yuan/ton, and the half-month increase was still around 10%.
By the 8th of this month, new trends have emerged. PV industry portal Solarbe issued a message saying that at 1100 a.m. that day, most domestic polysilicon manufacturers updated their solar-grade primary polysilicon quotes at the Solarbe PV Market Information Center, with the highest quotation reaching 550,000 yuan/ton, and the lowest price also reaching 490,000 yuan/ton. .
Compared with January, the single-month price increase for this quotation reached 25%. Solarbe also pointed out at the time of this announcement that this was the first time that domestic polysilicon plants had followed up their bids after the price of bulk orders in the spot market continued to rise. "Daily Economic News" saw the report on the 9th and reported on the matter.
The 14th reporter contacted the industry when he learned that the spot market prices have accelerated the rising trend. On the afternoon of the 14th, analyst Xie Chen responded to reporters that the mainstream quoted price this week has been raised to 550,000 yuan/ton to 600,000 yuan/ton, which is about 10% higher than a week ago; and the previous pace has remained roughly at 10% for half of the month.
Substantial benefit to listed companies
In 2008, the polysilicon concept stock that fell in the altar of the altar was revived on the 14th. On the same day, Jiangsu Sunshine , Aerospace Machinery, Chuantou Energy, and Leshan Power limited their shares. CSG A rose more than 7%, and it also led other photovoltaic stocks, such as Jinggong Technology , and silicon stocks .
However, the industry still believes that spot price increases do not represent a significant increase in the performance of related companies. Polysilicon companies and long-term downstream manufacturers have signed long-term orders for several years. The price of long-term orders is not only far below the spot price, but it is rarely ups and downs. Hou Wentao, an analyst at Xiangcai Securities, told reporters that there is only about 10% of the total number of loose orders that flow into the spot market.
For example, in the above city companies, Xinguang Silicon, a company in which Chuandou Energy holds shares, and LeTV Tianwei, a subsidiary of Leshan Electric, produce polysilicon mainly for Tianwei Baoji Mingxia Component Factory; Aerospace Machinery and Electrical Inner Mongolia subsidiary, Shenzhou Silicon, is also supplying. Its own component factory in Shanghai. Jiangsu Sunshine currently has a polysilicon production line with annual production capacity of 1,500 tons in Shizuishan in Ningxia, but as early as two years ago, the company signed a supply contract of 1,000 tons to 1,200 tons with Hairun Solar.
Therefore, the impact of spot price increases on the performance of polysilicon plants is not significant, at least for companies that have long-term orders and products for their own use. Hou Wentao said that from the perspective of industry history, the long-term contract price is much lower than the spot price. When the spot price in 2008 was as high as US$300/kg, the contract price was only at the level of US$56-60 per kg. He told reporters that foreign spot prices for polysilicon are also rising, but not so powerful in China.
In addition, the current rising spot price does not reflect 100% of the real market supply and demand. Before that, Xie Chen told reporters that in addition to GCL-Poly, there are not many polysilicon produced by domestic manufacturers. The demand for downstream components has continued to thrive. These companies have adjusted the product supply structure and produced more polysilicon to be used for personal use. The number of loose orders falling on the spot market has become smaller and supply has tightened further. This not only stimulated prices directly, but also caused the market to be prone to speculative atmosphere - the latest quoted price was up to RMB 650,000/ton.
"100 US dollars / kg is probably the top (equivalent to about 680,000 yuan / ton)," Hou Wentao said, "silicon polysilicon prices in the first half of next year there is a correction of pressure." Hou Wentao made the above judgments for two reasons, the downstream component prices There is a decline in demand, the battery plant to take into account their own gross profit space will not allow polysilicon spot prices have been excessive; current supply and demand despite gaps, but with the release of polysilicon production capacity and component demand, the spot price is expected to callback in the first half of next year.