Photovoltaic trade war or re-starting photovoltaic installation will be quota system

Just after the National Day holiday, John Madden, the bankruptcy administrator of a bankrupt US solar panel manufacturer EnergyConversionDevices ("ECD"), sued China's three major photovoltaic giants Suntech Power, Trina Solar and Yingli Green Energy. The company is suspected of price manipulation and dumping cheap solar panels in the United States, claiming 950 million US dollars (equivalent to 5.8 billion yuan), the industry exclaimed that the Big Three are "lying and shooting." A few days later, many polysilicon companies and banks such as GCL-Poly Energy and China Development Bank were also included in the list of indictments by ECD.

The "sliding gun door" quickly expanded and spread, and it shocked a group of "small partners" in China's photovoltaic industry. The photovoltaic disputes that have gradually subsided gradually calmed down. Is the photovoltaic industry that has just stabilized its development momentum undergoing a change?

"This kind of action is not a new trick. It is actually a continuation of the photovoltaic 'double-reverse' dispute." Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the China Renewable Energy Society, told reporters that "photovoltaic 'double anti-' is not just an economic issue. It is also a political issue and a strategic issue. For example, the EU reached a settlement agreement with us, stipulating that the price of PV modules exported to the EU from mainland China should not be less than 0.56 Euro/W. In fact, PV modules exported from China, Taiwan, Japan and Malaysia to the EU. Both are lower than this price, and now the lowest even drops to 0.46 euros/watt. Does this have no impact on the EU PV industry? But they have not encountered 'double opposition'."

"At present, China's polysilicon 'double anti-' is going on in the United States and South Korea, and it coincides with the first anniversary of the US's finalization of China's PV products 'double anti-', so it is normal for American companies to jump out and stir up. Not terrible. Deciding on the fate of China's PV industry is whether we are healthy and strong. As long as China's PV industry solves its own problems, this good situation can be maintained now," said Meng Xianyu.

"Lying the gun door" is a continuation of the trade war

In the past two years, the photovoltaic industry has been very difficult. The domestic photovoltaic manufacturing industry's iconic company, Suntech Power, has also been forced into bankruptcy and reorganization. In order to save the photovoltaic industry, the state has successively introduced support measures this year. In particular, the “Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry” issued by the State Council in July this year not only clearly stated that the total installed capacity of PV in China will reach 35 GW or more by 2015. Large-scale expansion of the domestic installed market, and in-depth and meticulously given many breakthrough policy measures in the integration of the grid, land acquisition, subsidies and other aspects, the confidence of the industry doubled.

Affected by this, the domestic PV industry has entered a stable and better development state. Many PV companies turned losses into profits in the second quarter of this year. The industry is generally optimistic about the development of the third and fourth quarters. However, only a few months of calm development, the ECD came to the door without any reason, which made the industry feel awkward and shouted "Let's lay in the gun."

As China's three largest photovoltaic manufacturing companies, Suntech Power, Trina Solar and Yingli Green Energy are not the first time in the United States. In October last year, a US photovoltaic company, Solyndra, who went into bankruptcy proceedings, sued the Big Three for $1.5 billion on the grounds of price manipulation. On the same day that Solyndra filed a lawsuit, the US Department of Commerce announced the manufacture of solar cells for China. The "double anti-" final ruling of the business.

At the same time, the same litigation object, and the same “complaint” reason, the industry is worried that the ECD lawsuit is not a common commercial dispute between enterprises, but a prelude to a new round of trade protection for the entire Chinese PV industry. A new trade war is about to start. Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economic Research Center of Xiamen University, said that from Solyndra to ECD, there may be more American companies following their example to further pressure the living space of Chinese PV companies.

“When will the PV trade war start again, no one can predict it?” Martin Green, a professor at the University of New South Wales, who is known as the “father of solar energy”, told reporters that “photovoltaics is a key area of ​​the new energy revolution in the future. Economic and social development will occupy an extremely important strategic position and will inevitably become the focus of international trade. For the development of each country's own industries, for the sake of their respective social and economic interests, the United States, Europe, India, even Japan and Brazil may initiate trade at any time. Fight, just look at their own development needs."

"Photovoltaic trade war has never been a simple economic issue. It is still a political and future development strategy. When social conflicts and economic downturns occur within Europe and the United States, it will also become a means of transferring contradictions. Why the EU is against China? The mainland PV module 'double anti-', but not the PV modules in Taiwan, Japan, and Malaysia, 'double anti-', their products are sold at a lower price than we are." Meng Xianyu said, "In fact, the Sino-US PV trade war has not At the end of the Ministry of Commerce, in September, the Ministry of Commerce decided to implement temporary countervailing measures for imported solar grade polysilicon originating in the United States. At this time, the United States made some counter-attacks and harassment, and it was entirely possible to trigger and escalate trade disputes. ”

Self-improvement is the best way to adapt

"As a solar energy practitioner, I firmly oppose the trade protection of the photovoltaic industry. The development and utilization of new energy is conducive to the long-term development of mankind. It is not necessary for countries to cooperate and promote it. It is unwise to set up trade barriers for new energy development." Martin Green said, "Photovoltaic is a sunrise industry with unlimited prospects. It is also an industry that shines under the sun. It should not be shrouded in the shadow of trade barriers. In Europe, many people and many countries do not support photovoltaics. 'For example, Germany has a clear-cut stand against it. Developed countries' punitive tariffs on China's new energy products will not help competitive industries in developed countries to gain competitiveness, nor will they help those who are competitive. The field, such as the production of polysilicon, will not help the development of new energy industries in developed countries in the future."

Meng Xianxuan believes that as a strategic emerging industry, the turmoil of international trade disputes will inevitably exist and will continue to exist in the future. Enterprises should be vigilant but do not have to concentrate too much on them. "Determining the fate of enterprises and industries is whether we are healthy and strong. Enterprises should practice 'internal strength', do a good job in the market, and change the situation of 'two heads outside'. You don't have to be afraid of these small means."

Regarding the development of the domestic PV industry, Meng Xianyu said that it has indeed emerged from the extreme predicament of last year, and has already passed an inflection point, and the whole industry has begun to improve. "But due to the low tide of the past two years, the debt of PV companies is still high. Only the debts of Suntech and Saiwei are as high as several tens of billions of yuan. The total debt of the top ten PV companies in China is more than 100 billion yuan. A very heavy burden, to completely reverse this situation, the entire industry to achieve health and prosperity may take two or three years."

It is worth noting that in the face of the ECD's lawsuit, the three major PV giants are not as excited as they used to face the prosecution, but calmly and desperately respond to their respective complaints. Fan Ruifeng, director of communications at Trina Solar, said that he is currently in the process of further communication with American lawyers, who will "actively defend their unfounded allegations in litigation."

It is difficult to eliminate the "quota system"

Installed market first

When encountering trade barriers in the international market, the domestic market is the best way out. "Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of Photovoltaic Industry" proposes that the goal of domestic PV total installed capacity reaching 35 GW by 2015 will not only completely change the PV industry technology and market "two heads out" situation, but also give the photovoltaic manufacturing industry a A strong reassurance has caused PV manufacturers to compete for the domestic installation market. Yingli Green Energy is described as a "big battle", indicating that it will seize half of the installed base of the country's ground power plants in the next five years.

However, behind the installation scene of the red fire, it is the industry's concern about the merger of the grid.

“The grid connection problem is a problem that has not been solved in the development of new energy in China. The western region is the best place for wind energy and solar energy, but power consumption and long-distance transportation are difficult. The central policy is to encourage local consumption, to be truly It is still necessary to build a smart grid, and this will require several trillion yuan of investment and a short period of time. We also encourage the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation, but since this year, it has really been promoted, and the current policies have not yet been fully introduced. After the completion of the support policy will be introduced after October, so the ground power station is still the mainstream." Meng Xianyu said.

The industry generally believes that to solve the problem of grid-connected consumption, it is best to introduce a quota system. However, Meng Xianyu said that the quota system has not been published for several years. The key issue is that the quota ratio cannot be determined. “The proportion of renewable energy generation in power generation enterprises, the proportion of renewable energy power generation purchased by power grid enterprises, and the proportion of local governments using renewable energy to generate electricity. These figures are difficult to determine. For example, the acquisition of power grids in Inner Mongolia can be The reasonable proportion of renewable energy power generation may be 15%, and the reasonable proportion of Guangdong's power grid to purchase renewable energy power generation may be 2%. This figure is different. It is difficult to determine that it will not be settled in the past few years. I am afraid I will not be able to."

However, Meng Xianxuan revealed to the reporter that although the quota system for consumption is difficult to introduce, the photovoltaic installation will adopt a similar "quota system." "Photovoltaic power generation will introduce a new policy. All countries must determine the guiding scale indicators and layout plans. According to the conditions of consumption and transportation, each province, city and county must have an annual PV power generation installation index and layout plan. In the past, all parts of the country applied for projects to the energy management department, and resources were available on conditional conditions. Regardless of whether the overall layout is reasonable or not, the grid-connected indicators were considered for grid-connected consumption.

“The 35 GW PV installation before 2015 will rely on this similar quota system to solve the grid connection problem,” said Meng Xianyu.

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