Polysilicon industry encounters "law of the jungle"

On March 1, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology formally issued the "Polysilicon Industry Access Requirements" and announced that it will be implemented on the date of release. According to the notice of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the relevant departments must take the access conditions as the basis for the approval of polysilicon construction projects, record management, land approval, environmental impact assessment, credit **, production license, and product quality certification.

Raising the threshold It is understood that the "Polysilicon Industry Access Requirements" raises the threshold for energy consumption, environmental protection, and production investment.

In terms of energy consumption, according to access conditions, by the end of 2011, solar-grade polysilicon reduction power consumption must be less than 60 kWh/kg, and integrated solar power consumption of more than 200 kWh/kg solar grade polysilicon production line will be eliminated.

"Polysilicon prices have not reached daily limit since last year, the current spot price has reached 114 US dollars / kg, while the production cost of SMEs is only 50 US dollars / kg. In some areas of low electricity prices, many small and medium polysilicon companies with low electricity prices and Zero-cost tail gas emissions to obtain high profits." Zhejiang Zhengtai Solar Technology Co., Ltd., a sales director of "China United Daily" said that the introduction of access conditions will challenge high-energy-consuming enterprises.

In terms of environmental protection, access conditions stipulate that the recovery utilization of silicon tetrachloride, hydrogen chloride, and hydrogen in the exhaust gas should be no less than 98.5%, 99%, and 99%; the basic farmland protection areas, nature reserves, and scenic spots established in accordance with the law should be established. , Drinking water source protection areas, residential concentration areas, health resorts, food production areas, and other sensitive areas with high environmental requirements, such as within 1,000 meters or in sensitive areas such as national and local planned key ecological function areas, shall not be built with polysilicon projects; The polysilicon projects put into operation in the region must be phased out according to the relevant planning of the region, and gradually withdraw by means of relocation, suspension, etc.; the water resources can be recycled comprehensively, and the water cycle utilization rate should be ≥95%.

In terms of funding, access conditions stipulate that the minimum capital ratio of investment in new construction and expansion projects shall not be less than 30%; before the new catalogue of government investment project approvals is issued, the new polysilicon project will no longer be approved in principle; solar grade polysilicon projects The scale of the project is more than 3,000 tons/year, and the scale of semiconductor-grade polysilicon projects is more than 1,000 tons/year.

“The state has set the minimum of polysilicon production capacity at 3,000 tons/year, and the purpose is very clear. The country wants to create benefits through scale advantages. At the same time, it also helps prevent some companies from blindly expanding their production capacity and also prevents speculative funds from entering.” Zhejiang Zhengtai Solar Energy Technology Co., Ltd. sales director said.

"After the "Polysilicon Industry Access Requirements" is issued, it will have a guiding role in the polysilicon market." Xue Huaidong, a professional member of the China Solar Energy Professional Committee of CHC, stated that some high-energy, high-pollution, small-scale manufacturers will be closed; The project declaration will tend to be larger.

"The shortage of raw materials," the industry access threshold will make some companies unable to get involved in the production of polycrystalline silicon, because 80% of polysilicon production enterprises for SMEs, it is difficult to achieve access conditions in terms of scale, will make the current shortage of polysilicon raw materials The phenomenon is more serious." Xue Huaidong analyzed.

At present, the shortage of solar polysilicon raw materials is currently very serious. It is understood that at the recent 5th Shanghai Solar Photonics Exhibition (SNEC), many solar energy practitioners went to the exhibition, mostly rushing to the material. "At present, many battery manufacturers do not have orders in their hands, so they mobilize procurement personnel to go to the show and directly talk about polysilicon prices and carry out sweeps and bargain-hunting." Xue Huaidong analyzed.

"With the rapid development of photovoltaic industry, domestic polysilicon enterprises have been unable to meet market demand, most of the polysilicon production companies have to buy polysilicon from abroad. Overseas acquisition of raw materials is also one of the purchase channels for major battery manufacturers." Zhejiang Zhengtai Solar Technology The sales director of the company said.

According to data from the Qingdao Customs in January this year, the import volume of polysilicon at the Shandong port hit a new high in one year, and import prices also increased significantly. According to statistics from Qingdao Customs, the import of polysilicon at the port of Shandong was 322.8 tons, an increase of 17.3 times over the same period of last year; the value was 29.2 million US dollars, an increase of 21.7 times year-on-year; the average import price was 90.5 USD/kg, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%.

“The shortage of solar polysilicon raw materials is getting more and more serious. Coupled with the continuous rise in raw material prices, relevant suppliers in the industry supply chain are striving to get their sources. It is expected that the shortage of raw materials will be difficult to resolve in the first half of 2011.” Xue Huaidong speculated.

Bohai Securities analysis believes that from the current trend, the late rise in polysilicon prices may exceed expectations.

Bigger and stronger is the right way At present, the photovoltaic industry has been listed as a future strategic emerging industry in China, but the status quo of polysilicon dependence on imports will be very detrimental to the development of the photovoltaic industry.

“However, 80% of the domestic polysilicon manufacturers are small companies, which are generally around the scale of hundreds of tons. These companies are not as large as they are in terms of scale and energy consumption. The introduction of access conditions is undoubtedly the release of these small enterprises. 'Exclusion of passengers'." Xue Huaidong analysis that small businesses in the future market competition will gradually be eliminated.

According to statistics, at present, there are 25 polysilicon companies that have been put into operation in China, and 28 are under construction. However, these enterprises will not exceed 10 in the end and 80% of the polysilicon manufacturers will find it difficult to get rid of the fate that has been eliminated.

That being the case, how will the polysilicon industry in its infancy develop? Industry insiders, the "polysilicon industry access conditions," the introduction of some mainstream companies is a relatively good information, its purpose is to focus on the future expansion of polysilicon in the existing few have certain technical advantages and scale advantages Within the company, more small-scale, low-tech companies can be restricted from entering this field.

In fact, the "Polysilicon Industry Access Requirements" has been issued before the Spring Festival, this time formally issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Here, some large manufacturers seem to have smelled the industry integration.

It is understood that by the rise in spot prices, China's largest polysilicon and wafer supplier GCL-Poly has announced that it plans to invest 17.7 billion Hong Kong dollars, and this year and next two years will expand to 65,000 tons based on the existing 21,000 tons of polysilicon production capacity. An increase of up to 200%. The planned production capacity of GCL-Poly in 2012 will be the largest polysilicon production company in the world if it is successfully completed.

Coincidentally. AU Optronics, the largest flat panel manufacturer in Taiwan, is spending US$1.3 billion to build a factory and has a joint venture with SunPower Inc. to produce high-efficiency solar cells for power generation. Trina Solar also plans to invest in Changzhou Tianhe PV Industrial Park in the next 3 years. Billion US dollars, used to expand the company's production capacity.

Meng Xianji, deputy director of the China Renewable Energy Society, said that if the threshold for access to the polysilicon industry can be met, then the production cost of polysilicon can be controlled at around US$30/kg, which is equivalent to the average production cost of polysilicon in the world. It is already very close.

However, concerns have arisen. There is a market point of view that the continuous expansion of large companies will result in overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry.

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