On the 14th, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River ushered in the third round of heavy rainfall this month. At 18:00 on the 14th, the Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a yellow rainstorm warning, which is expected to last until the 16th.
From March to the end of May, the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was abnormally low and there was a serious drought. However, in June, heavy precipitation continued and some areas suffered severe flooding.
Rainstorm warning
Guizhou early warning, Hunan early warning, Jiangxi early warning, Anhui early warning, Jiangsu early warning, Zhejiang early warning... On the 14th, the large weather screen inside the Central Meteorological Observatory showed the latest warning signs of rainstorms in various places. In front of a computer, dozens of forecasters were nervously analyzing various meteorological data to study the weather trends.
At the moment, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are experiencing the third round of heavy rainfall since June.
From March to May this year, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Anhui, and Jiangsu provinces in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River continued to have less rain, and some areas experienced severe drought. On the evening of June 3, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River fell to the nectar. Since then, three rounds of heavy rainfall have followed.
Sun Jun, chief forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory, introduced that the first round of rainfall occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from the 3rd to the 7th, and the drought was significantly alleviated. From the 9th to the 11th, the second round of heavy rainfall caused severe floods in Xianning, Hubei and other places. From the 12th to the 13th, the rainfall was weakened, and the distribution of heavy rainfall was relatively scattered. The third round of heavy rainfall began on the night of the 13th, and the 14th was the strongest day of the rain.
Sun Jun said that many of the three rounds of heavy rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River were repeated. The first two rounds of rainfall have saturated the soil moisture, and the water levels of small and medium-sized rivers, reservoirs and lakes are relatively high, and some of them approach or exceed the warning level. The third round of rainfall has caused some small and medium-sized rivers and reservoirs to face large levees and dams, which are prone to geological disasters and may cause internal stagnation in cities.
Since the release of the first rainstorm warning this year at 18:00 on the 3rd, the Central Meteorological Observatory upgraded the rainstorm blue warning to yellow at 18:00 on the 13th and continued to issue a yellow rainstorm warning on the 14th. At 10:00 on the 12th, the China Meteorological Administration launched a major meteorological disaster III. Level emergency response.
In the first half of June, the precipitation in the five provinces was more than three to five percent higher than the historical period.
Zhang Peiqun, deputy chief engineer of the National Climate Center, said that the obvious feature of precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River this year is that it was severely drought before the end of May, and precipitation increased significantly after June, with three periods of rainfall occurring. From June 1st to 13th, the average precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin was slightly higher than that in the historical period. The precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was 30% to 50% higher than that in the historical period.
Zhang Peiqun said that according to statistics for many years, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River generally entered the Meiyu period where precipitation was concentrated from June 16th to 19th. Since the meteorological record in the 1950s, the earliest time of entering the Meijiang River in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was on June 2nd. 1991 and 1996. This year, the concentration of concentrated precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is slightly earlier than normal. However, whether it has already entered Mei, it needs to be judged comprehensively based on multiple indicators, and it will take some time to confirm.
Will the Great Flood in 1998 occur in the Yangtze River Basin? Zhang Peiqun replied that there is no signal of such an abnormal climate. Since 2000, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River have entered a period of low summer precipitation. However, there will also be staged heavy precipitation. For example, last year from May, 14 rounds of precipitation occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.
According to meteorologists such as Zhang Peiqun, as of now, although the rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River has been very strong since June, there is not much abnormality in general; and the severe drought in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River before June and the recent drought and flood transition Fast, it is rare.
Changes in atmospheric circulation are the main cause of droughts and floods
According to statistics, from March 1 to May 30 this year, the precipitation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was abnormally low, and the average precipitation was 52.8% less than normal. The meteorological drought in Hubei, Jiangsu, Jiangsu, Anhui and other places has continued. On May 27, the meteorological drought in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River reached a yellow warning level.
Sun Jun said that the main reason for the rapid drought and flood since June is that the atmospheric circulation has changed. In June, with the onset of the monsoon, the southwest warm and humid airflow from the Bay of Bengal was strengthened and the water vapor conditions improved. At the same time, weak cold air often moved from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to the eastern region. Abundant warm and humid air and cold air meet in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, bringing rainfall.
What are the underlying causes of recent changes in atmospheric circulation?
According to experts from the National Climate Center, the factors that cause changes in atmospheric circulation and heavy rains in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are more complicated. Climate experts are busy carrying out comprehensive analysis and judgment, and no formal conclusion has yet been reached.
Meteorologists pointed out that in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, where there was heavy rainfall, there was a “drought and droughtâ€, but the precipitation in the central and northern Anhui, central and northern Jiangsu, northern Hubei and other places was still low, and it was still in a meteorological drought, so it was generally “ Drought and flood coexist."
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