Summary Summary: This week, Lun Nickel rebounded and fell back after being blocked. The closing price on Thursday rose slightly by about 300 from last Friday. In the Shanghai market, the spot nickel price first fell and then rose, and then fell back; in the first half of the week, downstream manufacturers increased their purchases at low prices; the second half of the week was basically concentrated among traders. Next Monday, China’s public...
Summary: This week, Lun Nickel rebounded and fell back after being blocked. The closing price on Thursday rose slightly by about 300 from last Friday. In the Shanghai market, the spot nickel price first fell and then rose, and then fell back; in the first half of the week, downstream manufacturers increased their purchases at low prices; the second half of the week was basically concentrated among traders. China announced its semi-annual economic data next Monday. It is expected that Lun Nick will focus on economic data and policy expectations, with the main range at 13300-14000 USD/ton. I. Analysis and prediction of the trend of nickel
1. Review of the trend of nickel
This week, the price of nickel fluctuated upwards, and then it was blocked. The trading range of the nickel-plated electronic disk was at 13205-13863 US dollars/ton, and it closed at 13642 US dollars/ton on Thursday, up 332 US dollars/ton from last Friday's closing. The transaction activity was not high. . This week, nickel stocks continued to increase, rising to a high of 194,406 tons last week, and the increase has slowed down.
There are two main factors affecting the price of nickel this week: 1. Premier Li Keqiang’s remarks that “economic growth does not slip out of the lower limit†have caused the market to turn towards the macroeconomic expectations, and the excessive pessimism about China’s prospects has eased slightly. Market confidence has been boosted; Second, the Fed has released information to appease the market. In June, the minutes of the Fed meeting showed that “many†members said that they would end QE after seeing a further improvement in the job market. On that day, Bernanke said that the unemployment rate would drop to 6.5% and would not immediately touch the rate hike.
2. Lun nickel trend forecast
Last week, the Fed released information indicating that it will be cautious about the rhythm of exiting the ultra-loose monetary policy, which will continue to guide market expectations and try to avoid risk adversely affecting the risky asset market. Although the market will still be expected to fluctuate around the Fed’s exit time and rhythm, it is expected that the factors related to the Fed’s exit easing next week will not cause significant negative impact on the metal market. Market trading will continue to focus on China's economic growth and economic policies next week.
So far, the current government's attention to the structure of the adjustment is much higher than the growth. Previously, the market worried that the policy layer might let the economy go down, and the panic was more serious. This week, Premier Li Keqiang’s statement on the lower limit of growth eased market concerns and the market’s expectations for new urbanization heat up. But before, the market repeatedly speculated that the introduction of new urbanization time was lost, indicating that the government is not eager to introduce measures.
The semi-annual economic data will be released next Monday. It is generally expected that the data will be poor, the data will be released, or it will become an opportunity for the government to introduce new measures to cope with the economic slowdown. It is expected that the basic metal prices will be mainly around the expectations of the policy announcement next week. Combined with Premier Li Keqiang’s speech this week, the forecast may be stronger next week, thus providing support for metal prices. However, due to the previous failures of many expectations, the expectation of metal prices may not be particularly strong. It is expected that the next week, nickel will be strong and volatile, with the main range at 13300-14000 USD/ton.
Second, the domestic nickel market
1. Electrolytic nickel market
This week, domestic spot nickel prices fluctuated more and more. Nickel prices fell from Monday to Wednesday, and rose sharply on Thursday, and fell again on Friday. On Wednesday, the Shanghai market Jinchuan nickel fell to a minimum of 95100-95300 yuan / ton, the Russian nickel fell to 94100-94300 yuan / ton; on Thursday, Jinchuan nickel rose to 98000-98200 yuan / ton, Russian nickel rose to 97000-97200 yuan / Tonne; Zhou Hardware Sichuan nickel fell back to 97100-97300 yuan / ton, Russian nickel fell back to 96100-96300 yuan / ton, down about 400 yuan / ton from last Friday.
In the first half of the week, Jinchuan nickel price fell to around 95,000 yuan / ton, attracting some downstream manufacturers to enter the market, but because it is in the off-season of downstream demand, and the continuous decline in nickel prices has changed the expectations of manufacturers, the purchase volume is generally small. Nickel prices rose on Thursday, some traders have reluctant to sell the price signs, although some merchants have chosen high-priced shipments, but because the buyer has more doubts about the sustainability of the rise, replenishment enthusiasm is not high, the transaction activity is limited to improve; nickel price to Friday Once again weakened, the high-priced shipments of traders on Thursday, the willingness to replenish the supply of goods at a lower price, and a part of the transaction, the downstream manufacturers in the latter half of the week are basically in a wait-and-see state.
2. Domestic ferronickel market
This week, the price of low-grade ferronickel fell slightly due to limited demand, and the price was roughly 2,440-24,300 yuan / ton. The price of high-grade ferronickel is weak and stable. According to a ferronickel manufacturer, the weak price is not strong, but it is only for the execution of contracts and refunds, so the downstream steel mills are more difficult to purchase, but the potential capacity is Excess, dragging the market of ferronickel, making the price not go high. According to the statistics of China Nonferrous Metals Association, the nickel output in May was 18,803 tons, and the total output in January-May was 101,216 tons, a year-on-year increase of 47.07%. If we want to bring hope to the market that continues to be surplus, we must change this pattern of excess supply and demand. However, the current overall economic performance is weak, and the short-term ferronickel market is still weak.
This week, as the price of low-nickel iron fell slightly and the downstream support was weak, the price of low-nickel high-iron nickel ore fell slightly, with a drop of about 5-10 yuan/wet. The price of medium-high-grade nickel ore is flat compared with last week. Although the current offer of miners is relatively firm, under the situation that nickel-iron manufacturers continue to suppress the price of minerals, the actual price of nickel-mine mines in the port shows signs of decline, and the industry has confidence in the market. Still not enough. There are still many closures, and the miners who have suspended the external quotation are known. Recently, the price of nickel ore around 1.8% in Tianjin Port is about 300 yuan/wet.
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