China's Oil Reliance Increases to the World's Leading Power

With the increasing dependence of China's oil on the outside world, the price paid by China for this is also astounding.

The “National Import Value of Imported Key Products” table issued by the General Administration of Customs on December 2010 showed that China imported 20,860,000 tons of crude oil in the current period and accumulatively imported 239 million tons in the year, an increase of 17.5% over the same period of 2009. In the current period, the import cost was 12.711 billion U.S. dollars, and the cumulative annual cost was 135.151 billion U.S. dollars, a significant increase of 51.4% over the same period in 2009. Experts predict that China may surpass the United States in 2010 to become the world’s largest energy-consuming country.

The “National Mineral Resources Planning” forecast released in early 2009 in front of the external dependence on petroleum shows that if the geological exploration is not strengthened and the current economic development mode does not change, China’s foreign oil dependence will increase to 60% by 2020. . The forecast of China Energy Development Report (2009) pointed out that after 10 years, the dependence on foreign oil of China's oil will increase to 64.5%. At the same time, the forecast data of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission show that China’s oil demand will be 450-600 million tons in 2020, and domestic oil production will be estimated at 180 million tons at that time, and imports will be 270-400 million tons. The degree of import dependence will be between 60% and 70%.

Dong Xiucheng, deputy dean of the School of Business Administration of China University of Petroleum, predicted from the China Business News that China may surpass the United States as the world's largest energy-consuming nation in the past 2010. Even if China meets the goal of “40% to 45% reduction in carbon emissions” promised to the UN climate conference, it will be difficult to reduce the amount of oil consumed and the ensuing foreign dependence. Therefore, China will be able to control the degree of dependence on foreign oil by 2020. It will not be easy at 60%.

Since 1993, China has changed from a net oil exporter to a net oil importer. Although in recent years, large oil reserves have been explored in the western region, as well as in the Bohai Sea and the South China Sea, as the output of the major oil fields in the east declines year by year, the growth of new oil fields cannot offset the decline in the latter's output. Therefore, China’s current annual oil production Both will basically remain at the level of 180 to 190 million tons. Dong Xiucheng told the newspaper: “Correspondingly, China’s current annual oil consumption has exceeded 400 million tons, and it is still growing rapidly.”

The rise of the “natural gas era” faces the trend of decreasing domestic oil reserves year by year and increasing dependence on foreign oils. There are people in the industry who compare the Western countries’ energy structural transformation path and propose that natural gas-based clean energy will help China meet the end of the oil era. .

Chen Weidong, chief researcher of the CNOOC Energy Research Institute, said that the United States relied on the “shale gas” to usher in the era of natural gas, and China could rely on the development of shale gas and other natural gas to replace its dependence on oil.

Shale gas production in the United States has now reached 17% of natural gas production, compared with only 1% in 2006. It is estimated that by 2030, the supply of shale gas in the United States will likely exceed 50% of the total natural gas, and it will be the most promising source of natural gas for supply in the coming decades.

Tongwei Tang, director of operations and corporate affairs of China Gas Group, explained to the newspaper that the United States has developed more natural gas-based distributed energy sources. There are small-scale power plants that use gas to generate electricity in industrial parks and residential communities, and water vapor for power generation can also be used. Heat energy recycling. At present, companies such as China Teng Gas Group have also begun to promote these technologies in some parts of China.

According to Chen Weidong, the United States is the world’s largest energy consumer, and its every move is linked to the ups and downs of the world energy market. In today's vigorously promoting a low-carbon economy, natural gas is the lowest in carbon emissions from fossil fuels. With the increasing dependence on foreign oil, China's natural gas era may come earlier.