Construction steel market will remain weak consolidation

Last week (October 28 to November 1), the domestic construction steel market prices rebounded as a whole. The most eye-catching is the Beijing-Tianjin region. Rebar price increases have reached 50 yuan/ton to 90 yuan/ton. Wang Jinsheng, vice president of the Tianjin Metal Materials Industry Chamber of Commerce (Association), said that in a comprehensive view, the construction steel market experienced a long-lost rise, with mainstream prices in the Tianjin market rising by nearly one hundred yuan in two or three days, but this rapid increase For some businesses, it was "difficult to adapt" and there was a worrying voice over the weekend. Businesses believe that it is difficult for market demand to remain sustainable, and such rapid pull-ups will be unsustainable, and there is a risk of falling back. Therefore, under the premise that the market is not expected to be unified, it is estimated that the probability of building steel products will continue to wait and see.

Market monitoring showed that as of November 1, the average price of ф25mm III grade rebar in 10 major domestic cities was 3510 yuan/ton, which was 30 yuan/ton higher than the same period in the previous week, and up 17 yuan/ton from the same period of last month. The rebar prices in northern China are more obvious than those in other regions. The growth in other regions is relatively limited. The prices of rebar in Beijing and Xi’an increased by 50 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton, while the prices of rebar in Shanghai, Chengdu, and Zhengzhou rose by 20 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton. The price changes in other cities were very small. The average price of the 6.5mm HPB300 high line in the 10 major domestic cities was RMB 3,499/ton, which was RMB 15/ton higher than the same period of the previous week and down RMB 26/ton from the same period of last month. The prices of Shanghai, Zhengzhou, Xi’an, Wuhan, and Chengdu high-line prices have increased by RMB 20/t to RMB 30/t, but prices in other cities have not changed significantly.

Tianjin's construction steel prices showed a trend of increasing. Last week, the price of Grade III anti-seismic large rebar steel in Hebei Iron and Steel was 3,430 yuan/ton, up by 90 yuan/ton from the same period in the previous week; the price of the third-grade coil was 3,410 yuan/ton, up by 80 yuan. Yuan/ton; the price of Jiujiang Steel's 6.5mm high line is about RMB 3280/ton, which is flat. It is understood that as the price rises, the Tianjin market reappears the trend of “buy up, not buy down,” and the transaction has obviously improved. Coupled with the small inventory of merchants, some specifications resources are in short supply and prices have risen sharply, such as rebar. The price difference between ф16mm, ф18mm, ф32mm and other specifications has increased.

Wang Jinsheng believes that the main reasons for the rebound of domestic construction steel prices last week are as follows: First, Hebei Iron and Steel Group issued the settlement price of construction steel in October, and the settlement price of Class III large rebar and Class III coils was 3,280 yuan/ton, HPB300 high line. The settlement price is 3330 yuan/ton. After the settlement price of steel mills was issued, the concerns of traders raising prices were eliminated, and the market price was actively raised in the context of the recent good trading volume and declining inventory. Second, steel mills overhauled in October, and crude steel production declined. Third, the rising price of construction steel in the ** market will affect the spot market. As of November 1, rebar 1405 contract price closed at 3,671 yuan / ton, compared with the same period the previous week rose 86 yuan / ton, or 2.4%; electronic high-line prices have also risen, 1401 contract price closed at 3,479 yuan / Ton, up 31 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.9%. Fourthly, the improvement of the overall market sentiment has led to an increase in the volume of domestic construction steel products in the near future. Construction steel stocks in most parts of the country are declining, and stocks in leading cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai have fallen sharply. As of November 1, the country's 29 major cities in construction steel social inventory of 6.3278 million tons, compared with the same period the previous week decreased 262,700 tons, a decrease of 3.99%, down 6.16% over the same period last month.

Wang Jinsheng pointed out that during the year, the traditional peak season of steel sales has become a thing of the past. In November, the steel market entered a seasonal off-season. Due to climatic factors in the northern region, the construction progress of outdoor engineering projects slowed down, and the demand for construction steel such as wire snails will decrease. The protection housing project completed 98% and 87% of the annual start-up and completion tasks at the end of September. After October construction has been basically completed, and the demand for construction steel demand in the later period is limited. In the future, the contradiction between supply and demand will become more prominent. Although the market has great hopes for the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the pressure on overcapacity will not diminish, the raw material market will weaken again, and the possibility of liquidity will be loose. Therefore, the overall trend of construction steel prices in November is expected. Will continue to dominate the weak shock consolidation.