Since 2011, European and American debt crisis and global economic double dip concerns about aggravating influence, sharply lower commodity prices across the globe; but as iron ore, one of the most important raw material in steel production seems detached from the outside, its stock The price even climbed to a new high of $190.ton. So what is the reason why the cheapest iron ore should be so proud? The author believes that there are mainly the following reasons. Global crude steel production has increased significantly and iron ore demand has increased. As we all know, after the economic crisis in 2008, the world's major economies began to vigorously support infrastructure, real estate, automobile manufacturing and other industries to stimulate the rapid recovery of the industrial economy. The global demand for steel has soared, directly leading to a large demand for iron ore. Rising, and due to limited production of the three major mines, the demand for iron ore has risen sharply. Secondly, from the perspective of global iron ore mining, most of the resources are mainly concentrated in the hands of BHP Billiton, Vale and Rio Tinto. The iron ore industry has almost formed a monopoly. For many years, the three major mines have adopted long-term agreements. The index pricing mechanism and other mechanisms firmly hold the pricing power of iron ore in the hands. Iron and steel enterprises have almost no right to sing. If the three major mines are not willing to take the initiative to cut prices, the price of iron ore is unlikely to fall sharply. The vested interests are not So easy to be overthrown. Third, the price of iron ore has not fallen sharply at this stage. According to the current economic growth rate of emerging industries such as India and China, the demand for iron ore is increasing every year, and China is the largest in the world. Large steel producing countries and major consumer countries, as well as iron ore consumption countries, because domestic ore production can not meet the steel production needs, domestic steel enterprises more than 50 or more up to 72% of the iron ore volume needs to be imported from abroad. According to raw material statistics, from January to July this year, China imported 389 million tons of iron ore from 58 countries and regions around the world, an increase of 7.21% year-on-year. Among them, the import of iron ore from Australia, Brazil and India accounted for 75.4% of the total imports in the same period. Sadly, however, as the world's largest consumer of iron ore, China is losing every year in iron ore price negotiations, so that the profits of the three major mines in the first half of 2011 are twice as high as the profits of domestic steel companies. Not only because of the increase in iron ore prices, Chinese steel companies need to pay hundreds of billions of dollars each year. Despite the slowdown in global economic growth this year, especially in the case of other commodities under the influence of the European and American debt crisis, the price of imported iron ore can still maintain a high level of more than 180 US dollars. This is not just a unilateral reason for the high demand for imported iron ore from China. The bigger factor is the global tight supply of iron ore. But the good news is that in recent months, the debate about iron ore prices entering the downtrend channel has begun to increase. Driven by the rapid development of the global steel industry, especially India and China, iron ore investment is enthusiasm. By 2015, global iron ore output will reach the highest level, and the supply and demand relationship will undergo a fundamental change. In recent years, Chinese companies have invested in iron ore overseas. Companies in other countries and regions such as Iran, Chile, and Africa are also investing in iron ore in large scale. The three major miners are expanding their scale. According to statistics, by 2015, Vale's production capacity will reach 469 million tons, much higher than the planned production of 332 million tons in 2011; Rio Tinto's production capacity will reach 330 million tons, much higher than the 230 million tons in 2011; BHP Billiton capacity will It reached 300 million tons, much higher than the 150 million tons in 2011. With the large-scale investment in iron ore projects, the large-scale growth of iron ore supply will gradually gradually approach. At the same time, iron ore research experts pointed out that due to the global economic slowdown, global steel demand will continue to be sluggish in 2011 and in the next few years. Due to the current bad economy, US real estate has not recovered yet, and China's real estate is in a slowdown, with a decrease in shipbuilding and a decline in car sales. The weakening of downstream demand in the real estate and machinery industries has directly led to a weakening of demand for upstream iron ore. Although major mines such as Rio Tinto continue to sing high growth expectations for global iron ore demand, the actual situation is currently It has begun to take shape. In general, the author believes that in the face of the actual deterioration of the international economic environment and the slowdown of the domestic economic growth, the prosperity of the shipbuilding, real estate, machinery manufacturing and other industries will decline, and the downstream demand for steel is unlikely to rise sharply during the year. The trend, while steel mills have begun to step down production in order to quote, and the demand for iron ore also adopts a relatively cautious low-inventory operation mode. It is expected that the domestic iron ore market will continue to be sluggish for some time to come, but at the same time Due to the price monopoly of the three major mines, the price is unlikely to fall sharply. It is expected that the price of iron ore will fall by up to 30 dollars in the future.
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