I. The stability of China's economic operation in the first half of the year was significantly enhanced. In the first half of the year, China's economic growth was in a stable and rapid growth range, with GDP increasing by 9.6% year-on-year; among them, the first and second quarters increased by 9.7% and 9.5% respectively. In terms of industries, the added value of the primary industry increased by 3.2%; the added value of the secondary industry increased by 11.0%; and the added value of the tertiary industry increased by 9.2%. Since the second half of 2010, some of China's stimulus policies have gradually withdrawn, and the economy has returned to the potential growth range. The economic growth rate has remained at 9.5%-9.8% for four consecutive quarters, and the stability of economic operations has been significantly enhanced. At present, the stable deceleration pattern of China's economy is essentially different from the sharp decline in the economy after the financial crisis. From the perspective of China's labor and electricity supply and demand are still relatively tight, the economic endogenous growth momentum is strong, and the steady exit of stimulus policies will not cause a sharp economic downturn. . Looking forward to the third quarter, from the perspective of the international environment, the downside risks of the global economy have increased, and the European debt crisis has spread. The downgrade of the US credit rating has caused global financial market turmoil. The economic growth momentum of developed countries is insufficient. The economic growth in the second half of the year may be lower than expected. However, emerging economies will continue to maintain rapid growth, and the global economy is less likely to fall into a second recession. According to the IMF's forecast, the global economy will grow by about 4.3% in 2011. From the perspective of China's economic fluctuations since 1995, the two major economic downturns were caused by external shocks caused by external shocks. As long as the global economy does not experience a second recession, the possibility of China’s economic slowdown becoming a so-called hard landing is extremely small. From the perspective of the domestic environment, the planned investment projects in the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†will be launched one after another. The construction projects for affordable housing and other people's livelihood will be launched, and the investment demand will maintain a relatively fast growth trend. In the first half of the year, 18 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities raised the minimum wage. Standards, rapid growth of rural residents' income, and rapid rebound in housing sales have contributed to the steady growth of household consumption. Due to seasonal factors, the trade surplus in the second half of the year has expanded compared with the first half of the year. Therefore, China's economy will maintain a steady slowdown. It is estimated that China's GDP will increase by 9.2% in the third quarter. Second, industrial production will maintain a moderate deceleration situation 1. Supply impact affects industrial production From January to July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 14.3% year-on-year, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year. In terms of quarterly, industrial production showed a steady slowdown, with an increase of 14.4% and 14.2% in the first and second quarters respectively. In terms of regions, the growth rate in the central and western regions was significantly faster than that in the eastern region. In the first half of the year, industrial production in the eastern, central and western regions increased by 12.4%, 17.8% and 17.3% respectively. In terms of light and heavy industries, the growth rate of light and heavy industries has narrowed. From January to July, light and heavy industrial production increased by 13.1% and 14.7% respectively. The growth rate difference was reduced from 4.8 percentage points in the same period of last year to 1.6 percentage points. From January to July, after the price factor was removed, the actual growth rate of China's investment, consumption and export demand slowed down significantly compared with the same period of last year. This is the main reason for the slowdown in industrial production compared with the same period last year. In April and May of this year, industrial production slowed down significantly compared with the first quarter. Due to the impact of supply shocks, power shortages in some areas and power cuts inhibited industrial production. The earthquake in Japan caused some spare parts supply to be interrupted, giving some electronic products to China. Japanese auto production has brought a big impact. In June, due to factors such as the increase in electricity prices, the growth rate of power generation rebounded sharply, and the negative impact of the Japanese earthquake on the production of Japanese Japanese auto and electronic products began to fade. 2. The growth rate of industrial production will slow down in the third quarter. The favorable factors for industrial production are as follows: First, industrial enterprises maintain good returns and support enterprises to expand production. From January to June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 2.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%. Second, the state has raised the on-grid tariffs of some provinces and cities, alleviating the loss pressure of power companies, which will help to alleviate the constraints of power on industrial production to a certain extent. Third, inflation expectations in the third quarter are still relatively high, industrial raw material prices are unlikely to fall sharply, and enterprises are not sufficiently motivated to cut inventory significantly, which will stabilize industrial production growth to a certain extent. Fourth, industrial enterprises have a good connection between production and sales. In July, the sales rate of industrial enterprises was 98.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the same month of the previous year. Fifth, the base number in the third quarter of last year was significantly reduced, and the growth rate of industrial production was 2.5 percentage points lower than that in the second quarter, which helped to increase the year-on-year growth rate of industrial production. The main factors that are not conducive to industrial growth: First, the continued tightening of monetary policy will lead to increased difficulty in financing enterprises, especially SMEs, and the obvious increase in corporate financing costs, which is not conducive to enterprises to expand production. Second, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in July was 50.7%, which showed a slowdown for four consecutive months, indicating that the manufacturing industry's vitality has declined in the future. Third, the completion of the annual goal of energy conservation and emission reduction and the introduction of orderly electricity measures will inhibit the production of some high energy-consuming industries. In the first half of the year, the elasticity coefficient of power consumption was as high as 1.27, and the annual energy-saving goal of achieving a 3.5% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP was very difficult. In order to complete the annual goal of energy conservation and emission reduction, the implementation of some localized and orderly electricity plans will focus on limiting the use of electricity by high-energy-consuming enterprises, which will affect the growth rate of these industries. Fourth, the growth rate of the world economy is slowing down. The growth rate of China's industrial product export delivery value will slow down in the third quarter. Overall, industrial production will show a moderate deceleration in the third quarter. It is estimated that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size will increase by 13.7% in the third quarter, of which light and heavy industries will increase by 12.8% and 14.1% respectively.
Mini Ball Valves ,Mini Ball Valve ,Small Mini Ball Valve,Stainless Steel Mini Ball Valve
WENZHOU DIYE VALVE&FITTINGS CO.,LTD , https://www.diye-valve.com