Abstract Focus of this week: According to the statistics of China Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel in the steel associations in early and mid-August was 1,764,600 tons and 1.739 million tons respectively. The average daily output of crude steel is estimated to be 2.14 million tons and 2.118 million respectively. Ton. The member companies in the first ten days have a daily average production of crude steel...
Focus of the week: According to the statistics of China Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel in the steel associations in early August and mid-August was 1,764,600 tons and 1.739 million tons respectively. The average daily output of crude steel is estimated to be 2.14 million tons and 2.118 million tons respectively. . The average daily output of crude steel in member companies in the first half hit a record high, and remained at a relatively high level in the middle. According to statistics, in July this year, the national large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises achieved sales revenue of 299.128 billion yuan, down 0.69% from the previous month; realized a total profit of 2.301 billion yuan, turning losses into profits. As steel companies turn losses into profits, the release of steel mill capacity will gradually accelerate, which will once again put pressure on the current supply and demand relationship. In addition, due to the recent tension in the international Syrian situation, domestic and foreign capital markets have generally weakened, especially the continued weakness of steel. Will form a certain negative for the domestic steel spot market mentality. First, the market situation review
This week, domestic building materials are strong and weak, with fluctuations between 10-30 yuan/ton. Due to the expected improvement in the peak season and the support of the leading steel mills' ten-price policy, the prices in most regions increased slightly in the beginning of the week, but the market transactions were not satisfactory after the increase, and the market prices quickly returned to the consolidation state; As the price of raw materials continued to fall, the overall rising sentiment gradually disappeared; in the latter half of the week, the merchants' willingness to ship increased, and the profit operation gradually increased, resulting in the emergence of low-cost resources, which eventually weakened the mainstream market price. At present, the production of steel mills has returned to normal, the supply of resources in various places has increased significantly, and the social stocks in many places have rebounded. The supporting role of goods is gradually weakening.
Second, cost analysis
This week, the domestic steel market fluctuated within a narrow range. According to the calculation of Fubao cost model, as of September 5, the profit margin of domestic small and medium-sized steel enterprises 20mm third-grade rebar is negative 149 yuan / ton, compared with last weekend (negative 153 yuan / ton) profit is increasing 4 yuan / ton; 6.5 The profit margin of the mm high line is negative 75 yuan / ton, compared with last week (negative 72 yuan / ton) profit increased by 3 yuan / ton. There was no significant improvement in profitability. Although the traditional "Golden Nine" peak season, but the terminal demand release is disappointing, and the steel mills gradually accelerate the release of production capacity in the case of improved profitability, the current market supply and demand contradictions have once again formed pressure, short-term steel prices have a risk of falling. In terms of raw materials, the market volatility is weak, and the enthusiasm of steel mills is gradually weakening, in order to maintain the existing stocks, raw material prices will be loose next week. On the whole, it is expected that the negative growth of profit margin next week will be difficult to improve.
Third, the analysis of major city stock changes
This week, domestic building materials dominated the market and the inventory was slightly reduced. According to statistics: Shanghai rebar stocks were 341,800 tons, down 0.2% from the previous month, up 4.84% last week; Guangzhou was 377,800 tons, up 6.12% from the previous month, up 5.95% last week; Beijing was 461,400 tons, up 3.06% from the previous month. Weekly increase of 0.04%; Shanghai wire stocks of 103,000 tons, a decrease of 5.85% from the previous month, unchanged from last week; Guangzhou 258,200 tons, an increase of 8.95% from the previous month, an increase of 1.28% last week; Beijing 41,500 tons, a decrease of 3.94% from the previous week, last week Reduced by 3.79%.
Although it has entered the traditional demand season, market demand has not been released as scheduled, and on the contrary, the volume of transactions has been declining. In particular, the snail continued its decline for several days, and the raw materials also weakened in a narrow range. The business mentality was obviously frustrated and confidence gradually faltered. In order to obtain shipments, the overall quotation began to loosen, and some of them increased the preferential margin, but even this is still difficult. In terms of steel mill production, with the improvement of profitability and favorable expectations, the release of production capacity is still high, which poses a threat to the supply and demand of the steel market in the later period. The stock market will continue to be under pressure, and the market price will not be significantly improved.
1. Technical analysis
From the daily chart, the daily K line oscillated downward this week, falling below all short-term moving average platform support; the trend indicator KDJ was low and weak; the leading indicator MACD diverged downward and the green column continued to expand. From the hourly chart of the main contract, the snail is currently running in the blue short-selling range, and the trend indicator RSI is low and weak. The leading indicator MACD is low and the green column is converging. On the whole, the snail continues the weak steady state next week, paying attention to the pressure of 3735 and supporting 3700.
The snail market is pre-judgment: the material snail 1401 will run in the main operation interval of 3680-3750 next week, paying attention to the competition of three key points of 3750, 3730 and 3700;
3. Next week's operation recommendations
Multi-header suggestion: Termrox 1401, short-term bulls cautiously wait and see, the original warehouse receipts are mainly reduced, holding attention to 3715 points support, the overall position is controlled within 5%; Pay special attention to daily futures operation recommendations.
Short-selling suggestion: Term screw 1401, short-term shorts to participate in a small amount, if the rebound can not break through the 3730 platform, you can go short, the position is controlled within 10%, the profit is 3700, the stop loss is 3750; Pay special attention to daily futures operation recommendations.
V. Next week's trend prediction and operational recommendations
1. Next week trend prediction
From the main factors affecting the trend of the building materials market, long-short balance: market performance is worse than expected, business confidence is frustrated, the market is gradually rational and wait-and-see, some local leading steel mills have begun to test the price of the factory, effective demand is short-term However, the stocks are pointing well, the performance of the industrial index is acceptable, and there is a certain confidence in the market outlook. In addition, the various means of controlling the resources of the steel mills are constantly on the way, and comprehensive consideration is expected to be weaker next week.
2. Operational recommendations
Shipment-oriented, procurement plans are cautiously implemented, and wary of market risk.
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